Focus topic natural resources

 

Focus topic: Energy and climate changeWhile global demand for natural resources is growing steadily, supply is limited. This holds in equal measure for water, agricultural commodities, fossil fuels, metals and ores – and has far-reaching implications for the world’s climate. In the absence of hard-hitting measures to counter this trend, prices for these natural resources will continue to rise. One of the most important parameters to ensure future supply is to boost efficiency in the utilisation of these resources. The measures required to meet these challenges will trigger fundamental changes harbouring numerous risks and opportunities for market participants.

 

DB Research publishes a Web 2.0 animated film
on climate change

 

 


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Title
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28.05.2015
Dark clouds over lignite
Abstract: The German government is sticking to its target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40% from the 1990 level by 2020. As it currently seems doubtful that the target will be achieved, Minister of Economics Sigmar Gabriel suggests introducing an additional climate contribution for older electricity power plants with particularly high CO2-emissions. Especially older lignite-based power plants would be affected by such a measure. And this at a time when many power plants are under pressure anyway due to changes in the investment strategies of a large Scandinavian investor.
Topics: Economic policy; Energy sector; Environmental protection; Key issues; Natural resources; Sectors / commodities
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24.04.2015
African revival shifts east
Abstract: There are good reasons to think that the revival in African growth over the last decade has been based on much more than the super cycle in commodities and demand from China. Over the next decade, however, the region’s centre of economic gravity is likely to shift towards the less resource-dependent economies in East Africa. East African countries are economically more diverse and beginning to form a relatively large and well-integrated regional market. Therefore, beyond the likely improvement in their terms of trade, they appear better-placed to deliver the structural economic transformation that will be needed to create jobs for the fast-growing working age population.
Topics: Africa; Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic structure; Emerging markets; Energy sector; Food and beverages; Gas industry; Intern. relations; Macroeconomics; Natural resources; Risk / Country Risk; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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09.03.2015
German exports to oil-producing countries to decline in 2015
Abstract: While the German economy is generally getting a growth boost from the slump in oil prices, the oil-producing countries are seeing their economic prospects deteriorate. This could bring pressure to bear on German goods exports to these countries, which totalled no less than EUR 73 bn in 2014 (export share: 6.4%), and trigger a 10-15% nominal decrease in 2015. The sectors in Germany that have particularly benefited so far from the oil producers' "petrodollar recycling" include mechanical engineering and other transport equipment (mainly aircraft). In these cases, both the export ratios and the shares of the oil countries in total sector exports are above average.
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Economic growth; Economic structure; Electrical engineering; Energy sector; Exchange rates; Globalisation; Intern. relations; Key issues; Mechanical engineering; Middle East; Natural resources; Other sectors; Prices, inflation; Risk / Country Risk; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry; Trade
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20.01.2015
Konzept Issue 02
Abstract: The world’s investors, regulators,governments have some challenges on their hands: deflation, the falling oil price, changing global capital flows, stresses in the Ukraine, shadow banking risk, reduced liquidity, low market volatility. Any one of them would merit serious research and attention, but all of them together add up to a constellation of topics that will have profound impact on the way economies and markets play out over 2015. We hope this issue of Konzept will provide some clarity, some insight, and, occasionally, something to smile about.
Topics: Banking; Capital markets; Contagion; Eastern Europe; Economic growth; Energy sector; Exchange rates; Financial market trends; Gas industry; Globalisation; Innovation; Intangible assets; Intern. economic system; International financial markets; International financial system; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Natural resources; Prices, inflation; Real estate; Risk / Country Risk; Sectors / commodities; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Supervision and regulation; Sustainability; Technology and innovation; Trade; WTO
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15.12.2014
CO2 emissions from cars: Regulation via EU Emissions Trading System better than stricter CO2 limits
Abstract: The integration of road transport into the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) using an upstream approach (with refineries and fuel importers as participants) is superior to the instrument of CO2 limit values for cars on the counts of ecological effectiveness and macroeconomic efficiency. This applies in particular if a cap on CO2 emissions enjoys top political priority. Higher taxes on fuel would also be more appropriate than a further tightening of limit values after 2020/21. Nonetheless, if policymakers should decide that (stricter) CO2 limit values for cars are to remain the instrument of choice after 2021, it would be appropriate to gear them to the (lower) targets in other large auto markets.
Topics: Auto industry; Economic policy; Energy policy; Environmental policy; European policy issues; Innovation; Key issues; Mechanical engineering; Natural resources; Sectors / commodities; Sustainability; Tax policy; Technology and innovation; Transport; Transport policy
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14.11.2014
US and China reach climate protection agreement: A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush
Abstract: At the APEC Summit the US and China reached an accord on long-term targets to combat climate change. The US plans to cut its CO2 emissions by 2025 by 26-28% compared with 2005 levels. In China CO2 emissions are to peak by 2030 at the latest. Although many reservations will probably be expressed that this is too little to contain the negative consequences of climate change to a manageable degree, given the realities in international climate policy such a compromise is the bird in the hand that may be preferable to the two in the bush.
Topics: Economic policy; Energy policy; Energy sector; Environmental policy; Environmental protection; Intern. relations; Key issues; Natural resources; Sectors / commodities
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28.10.2014
EU climate targets: High degree of flexibility highlights conflicts within the EU
Abstract: The climate targets recently adopted by the EU show a high degree of flexibility. This reflects the conflicting interests and the heterogeneity of the EU member states, for example in terms of energy generation or degree of industrialisation. However, the pronounced flexibility is not necessarily bad news. The fact that the EU intends to rely also in future on revitalised EU emissions trading as its main climate protection instrument is to be welcomed. Compared with other countries – such as the United States or China – the EU committed itself early on with an ambitious CO2 reduction target of at least 40%.
Topics: Economic policy; Economic structure; Energy policy; Energy sector; Environmental policy; European issues; European policy issues; Key issues; Natural resources; Sectors / commodities; Sustainability
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09.10.2014
Ebola: A human and economic catastrophe in West Africa
Abstract: Since its outbreak in December 2013 in Guinea, the Ebola epidemic in West Africa has resulted in over 3,000 deaths out of 7,000 cases, according to the World Health Organization. The actual figure could be higher since there is evidence of substantial under-reporting of cases and deaths. This outbreak has been spreading considerably faster than previous ones, mostly because it has reached urban areas in Liberia and Sierra Leone. It could spiral to over 500,000 infections, and potentially many more, by the end of January if control measures do not improve, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In contrast to this worst-case scenario, mobilisation by the international community as seen recently and increased education in affected countries could almost end the epidemic.
Topics: Africa; Economic growth; Emerging markets; Energy sector; Gas industry; Key issues; Natural resources; Risk / Country Risk; Sectors / commodities; Socio-econ. trends; Trade
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26.06.2014
The changing energy mix in Germany: The drivers are the Energiewende and international trends
Abstract: Due to numerous political incentives, especially relating to the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), the renewables share has increased sixfold since 1997 with regard to both primary energy consumption and electricity generation. Germany's first energy policy rethink (or Energiewende 1.0) not only sent costs ballooning but also impacted on electricity prices, the generation mix and emissions trading. And despite the EEG the contribution of wind/solar to primary energy consumption (PEC) was a mere 2%-plus in 2013. Overall, the “green electricity share” could reach roughly 60% by 2035. But how will the remaining 40% be generated – in view of the Energiewende 2.0? Depending on the scenario, the onus is more on natural gas or coal.
Topics: Economic policy; Energy policy; Energy sector; Environmental policy; Environmental protection; Gas industry; Innovation; Key issues; Natural resources; Sectors / commodities; Sustainability; Technology and innovation
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12.06.2014
Mozambique: A growth story which can be sustained
Abstract: Forecast to grow at 8% per year over the next five years, Mozambique is benefiting from mineral wealth and infrastructure development following a 30-year civil war and from a favourable macroeconomic environment. However, the southern African country has a very low GDP per capita (USD 655). It is now facing the challenge of developing its wealth of natural resources, particularly the gas sector, so that this benefits the population at large and leads to sustainable growth.
Topics: Africa; Economic growth; Emerging markets; Energy sector; Gas industry; Key issues; Natural resources; Risk / Country Risk; Sectors / commodities; Socio-econ. trends; Trade
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