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In their latest report, Adrian Cox and Galina Pozdnyakova take us through six important themes that began to emerge over the past few months, proving that issues around AI continue to be top of mind in all areas of the financial, political, and technological world despite a typically more relaxed summer pace. [more]

The word “recession” has been one of the most widely used in markets over the last 12 months. In their annual Long-Term Asset Return Study, Jim Reid, Henry Allen and Galina Pozdnyakova focus on understanding what history tells us about the frequency, depth and duration of recessions, along with what causes them using cycle data stretching back to 1700. The team also takes a look at their impact on asset prices, and the likely shape of them going forward. [more]

The excitement around Artificial Intelligence that had been building since OpenAI’s launch of ChatGPT at the end of last year cooled off slightly over the past couple of months. Investors, entrepreneurs and analysts went to the beach, the media focused on time-honoured summer themes including season stories, and students took time off from writing essays using chatbots. Adrian Cox highlight six themes you missed while you were at the beach. Visit our dedicated AI website for more www.dbresearch.com/ai [more]

Megatrends such as decarbonisation, digitalisation and demographics, as well as signs of deglobalisation, could cause structural supply bottlenecks in the 2020s. In this report, we look at commodities such as copper, cobalt, nickel or lithium, for which global demand is likely to rise faster than supply, not least due to the energy transition. The availability of labour is also increasingly becoming a scarcity factor. Due to supply bottlenecks, potential growth in Germany could be closer to the 0.5% than the 1% mark in the future. [more]

The historical trend towards more office workers and offices could peak in a couple of years. Three mega trends the climate crisis, demographics and digitalization will have a striking and lasting impact. [more]

Consumer prices rose 3.7% over the past year, according to this morning's CPI report. Please watch Deutsche Bank Chief US Economist Matthew Luzzetti break down today’s data with spokesperson Claire Rodgers. [more]

Intriguing Market Insights from Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga and Galina Pozdnyakova. Despite being closer to a Fed pause, many rate-sensitive assets are yet to recover. Investors are cautious, perhaps due to last year's rapid drops. But if history is any indicator, any post-pause rally could be swift.
In years like 2023, the latter part of the year tends to be good for equities. Hedge funds, trailing the S&P 500, may make moves to catch up.
In Europe, interdependencies with China are worth noting. Despite recent challenges, we remain optimistic about Chinese markets, with potential catalysts like improved corporate earnings and stimulus on the horizon.
A key concern remains with the lag effects of rate rises impacting the high-yield debt market. [more]

Anna Friedemann works in our #dbresearch team covering Central Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa (CEEMEA). Anna has a particular focus on local markets and FX with a current focus on Ukraine, Egypt and Romania.
In a new ‘Q&A with’, she explains what working as a CEEMEA strategist entails, which topics she thinks could be driving markets into year-end and which markets have come into focus. [more]

Back to school with a new edition of the "Germany: Economic Chartbook".
Given the deterioration of sentiment as well as other high-frequency data, and the current and looming global headwinds, we have lowered our 2023 and 2024 GDP forecasts. While inflation is moving in the right direction, leading labor market indicators point to first cracks, even though skilled workers are still in high demand. However, private consumption is weak, and the latest consumer sentiment surveys do not suggest an imminent upswing. We take a closer look at the development of wages and household finances. Higher interest rates and a low propensity to invest have slowed lending to companies. Finally, we also look at the fiscal budget, a German green trade surplus and the office market. With a more long-term perspective, we illustrate Germany's structural challenges. [more]

In our series Making Sense of Space, we discuss the logistics of moving around after reaching orbit. Rockets do the heavy lifting off the ground but what happens after the payload is in space? Luca Rossettini from D-Orbit joins us. [more]