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December 8, 2021
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In Freight, Logistics and Container Shipping, we think 2022 will be a record year for earnings and FCF. With corporate balance sheets in good shape we see scope for significant shareholder returns we expect freight demand to be led by an inventory re-build and not the consumer. In Airlines & Airports, the latest travel restrictions will clearly mean some lost revenues and the return of booking hesitancy this winter. Medium-term, however, expectations are unlikely to have to change given pent-up demand for travel and the restructuring that’s been done, supporting valuations. [more]
December 8, 2021
The biggest themes of 2022 are not questions about, say, market direction. Rather, we highlight the waves of change in society that have momentum and will drive prices and risk. Our top-10 themes are spread across economics, finance, corporates, and government. They all exist against the backdrop of covid and they are all being changed by it. [more]
December 6, 2021
Our US Transportation team has published its 2022 Outlook Report. The bottom line is that they’ve been bullish for a long time, and they continue to be bullish for the outlook for 2022 But it’s clear that the accommodative macro conditions are likely to wane. Specifically, we’re transitioning from a period of easy monetary and generous fiscal policies to a period that is less easy and less generous. This has implications for equity valuation. [more]
November 19, 2021
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In the face of rapidly rising COVID-19 infection rates causing regional bottlenecks in intensive care units, the current caretaker federal government and heads of federal states agreed on further restrictions yesterday. From now on, the hospitalisation ratio in federal states will be the new single most important indicator to watch. It measures how many COVID-19 patients per 100,000 people have been hospitalised during the last 7 days. As soon as certain thresholds are exceeded, new restrictions will come into effect. In this Germany Blog, we explain the new thresholds and measures in detail and provide an economic assessment to illustrate the impact. [more]
November 16, 2021
Governments from around the world will parade their climate credentials at the COP26 summit ... but when the dust has settled, much of the pressure to implement their plans will be delegated to corporates. Post-COP, firms will be pushed via policy or social pressure to spend more to mitigate climate change. The cost may be high but proactive firms are already being rewarded by customers and investors. Those that delay may face penalties. [more]
November 11, 2021
The short-term growth outlook has weakened amidst supply-chain issues and an energy shock that has boosted inflation. But there is still major fiscal support, whilst vaccines and other medicines will help against Covid.

If inflation proves even higher than anticipated, that could lead to tighter monetary policy that knocks growth off course. [more]
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