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1219 Documents
December 8, 2023

Outlook 2024: The year of disenchantment?

Region:
Germany
Focus Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Heike Mai, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider, Ursula Walther
The external environment as well as monetary and fiscal policy should provide strong headwinds. Sentiment will likely be dragged lower by the increasingly evident structural problems. We anticipate a modest recession during the winter half to be followed by a gradual recovery from spring onwards. We expect the government to survive the internal quarrels with respect to the 2024 budget, following the constitutional court ruling. Debt brake reform is unlikely in the short run. A cross-party consensus for a Transformation Fund 2.0 might emerge before September regional elections. [more]
December 5, 2023

M&A outlook 2024: The recovery begins

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Galina Pozdnyakova, Luke Templeman
PDF 420k
It has been a brutal two years for dealmaking. Following the M&A boom of 2021, the value and volume of deals remains well below historical averages in the US and Europe. Yet, we see 2024 as a year of recovery for M&A activity, and there are three key themes we believe will catalyse it: 1. Eager buyers and valuation dislocations, 2. The need for large firms to supplement declining organic profit growth, 3. Greater certainty in the financing backdrop. [more]
December 1, 2023

Semiconductor market: AI boom boosted prices but units sold collapsed

Region:
Germany
Focus Germany
Topic:
Digital
Analyst:
Hermann P. Rapp, Jochen Moebert
The AI boom has had important implications for the semiconductor market. In particular the logic chips are in high demand. In 2023 surging demand was constrained by shrinking supply. This resulted in a substantial fall in units sold whereas prices surged. Here we analyze the underlying economic and technological drivers and forecast the development of global sales of the semiconductor market until the end of 2025. [more]
November 28, 2023

World Outlook: The Race Against Time...

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
David Folkerts-Landau, Jim Reid
PDF 89k
In our World Outlook for 2024, we outline how we’ve had a fairly consistent macro narrative over the past 2 3 years and we continue to see this as a classic policy led boom bust cycle that will culminate in a US recession. Ultimately, the impact of rapid rate hikes are yet to take effect in full, and QT is still continuing in the background. That will make early 2024 a challenging environment, and we expect a mild US recession in H1 2024. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, we think that a mild recession has already begun that will stretch into the start of 2024. [more]
November 27, 2023

2024 US election insights: Preview of the economic & political landscape

Region:
International
Podzept (Podcast series)
Analyst:
Brett Ryan, Mike Moran, Pam Finelli
Listen Audio 12M
With just under a year until the US elections, Pam Finelli, COO of Research and Head of Fixed Income Research, Brett Ryan, Senior US Economist and Mike Moran, Head of US Political Affairs discuss the unfolding narrative and navigate the anticipated policy implications, shed light on key issues at stake, and unravel the historical market reactions that investors should brace for. [more]
November 10, 2023

Video: Where’s my AI revolution

Region:
International
dbInSights - public
Analyst:
Adrian Cox
Watch video 
Artificial Intelligence has been everywhere and nowhere since the launch of ChatGPT a year ago. This practical guide explains the hurdles to enterprise adoption – technology and data, governance, and people – and how you can begin to overcome them in your own company. For more, please check out our dbResearch AI microsite: www.dbresearch.com/ai [more]
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