1. Research
  2. Global Search

Category filter

1042 Documents
July 26, 2022
Region:
Rising interest rates due to rampant inflation will have a mixed impact on the banking industry. They are a boon for net interest income but also cool down loan demand (currently still buoyant) and may lead to higher loan losses. This will probably be reinforced by a mild recession in Europe caused by macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. As a result, net income may decline yet banks should remain solidly profitable. From a comfortable starting position, capital ratios could come under pressure if risk-weighted assets continue to rise which would dampen prospects for further significant shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks. Liquidity levels have stayed strong so far. [more]
July 21, 2022
Region:
Germany's current account is in flux. Currently, the "terms of trade" shock is reducing the surplus in the goods balance. But structural factors such as the reduced importance of industry and demographics also point to lower surpluses. In addition, we expect a further narrowing of the deficits in the services balance. The surpluses from the primary and secondary balance, on the other hand, are likely to increase further. In total, the current account ratio will fall sharply in 2022, especially measured in terms of GDP, and will also tend to be significantly lower than in the past thereafter. Accordingly, criticism of Germany's surpluses is likely to become increasingly muted. [more]
July 19, 2022
Analyst:
Stablecoins and the DeFi ecosystem have taken a hard hit recently. However, the current stress for cryptos caused by tighter monetary policy may reveal which services offer real value for customers. In fact, leading collateral-backed stablecoins have weathered the storm quite well. The ecosystem will probably face further losses but emerge consolidated and well positioned for continued growth. [more]
July 15, 2022
Assessing the state of the US economy has become very tricky recently with various datapoints sending conflicting signals about the underlying strength. While 2.7 million new jobs were added in the first half of 2022 with the unemployment rate staying at 3.6%, consumer sentiment is plumbing historical lows and forward-looking growth indicators have weakened. Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research, US speaks to Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, to shed light on what is going on. [more]
July 14, 2022
Region:
Moving into recession. A likely further decline in Russian gas supply after the maintenance of NS1 will necessitate additional savings. While we do not expect a full rationing, we believe the economic consequences will together with a US recession and other headwinds push Germany into a recession in H2 2022. Given that prospects for Russian gas deliveries have darkened since February, this energy shock will not hit Germany by surprise or unprepared. Hence, we expect a modest but rather drawn-out GDP decline, as the economy gradually adjusts. After a 1 ¼% expansion in 2022, German GDP will shrink by around 1% in 2023, largely because consumers will not be able to offset the real income loss by further dissaving. In a “tap remains turned off” scenario, we expect a rationing of gas leading to a GDP slump between 5% and 6% in 2023. [more]
July 7, 2022
The quant team's 'Academic Insights' report discusses the most relevant, recently published academic papers on various topics related to quantitative investing as sourced by Deutsche Bank Research analysts. The latest edition, which features over 70 studies and podcasts, includes climate research, digital assets, intangibles, inflation, tail risk hedging and diversification. Watch this latest video with Caio Natividade to find out what stands out. [more]
30.5.0