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Thematic Research

Excerpts of selected reports as well as fundamental analyses which were originally published on Client Research Portal. 
 
151 Documents
    
September 29, 2023

The Future of Money

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Marion Laboure
The past decade has challenged our understanding of money as payment alternatives and new forms of currency entered our everyday lives. Digital assets such as Bitcoin have captured the spotlight, but we believe it will be central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) that will prevail. And yet, even as the transition to digital payments continues, cash does not face extinction. [more]
1
September 20, 2023

The History (and Future) of Recessions

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Galina Pozdnyakova, Henry Allen, Jim Reid
The word “recession” has been one of the most widely used in markets over the last 12 months. In their annual Long-Term Asset Return Study, Jim Reid, Henry Allen and Galina Pozdnyakova focus on understanding what history tells us about the frequency, depth and duration of recessions, along with what causes them using cycle data stretching back to 1700. The team also takes a look at their impact on asset prices, and the likely shape of them going forward. [more]
3
September 12, 2023

Assets that haven't moved yet

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Galina Pozdnyakova, Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga
Intriguing Market Insights from Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga and Galina Pozdnyakova. Despite being closer to a Fed pause, many rate-sensitive assets are yet to recover. Investors are cautious, perhaps due to last year's rapid drops. But if history is any indicator, any post-pause rally could be swift.
In years like 2023, the latter part of the year tends to be good for equities. Hedge funds, trailing the S&P 500, may make moves to catch up.
In Europe, interdependencies with China are worth noting. Despite recent challenges, we remain optimistic about Chinese markets, with potential catalysts like improved corporate earnings and stimulus on the horizon.
A key concern remains with the lag effects of rate rises impacting the high-yield debt market. [more]
4
July 26, 2023

Is disinflation different this time around?

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Matthew Luzzetti, Peter Hooper
Over the past year, the view that a recession would be needed to enable the Fed to achieve its firm target of returning inflation to 2% has gone from long shot to consensus view to, essentially, a coin toss. In their recent US Economic Perspectives report, Deutsche Bank Research attempts to answer the question: Recession or soft landing: Is disinflation different this time? [more]
5
June 22, 2023

Can AI replace humans in thematic investing?

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Ganchi Zhang
Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing the way investments are made, including thematic investing. In a new report by the quantitative research team, they provide a comprehensive framework for using AI in active thematic investing. AI can not only identify the ever-changing market drivers but also help make informed investment decisions with diverse exposure. [more]
7
June 20, 2023

Precious Metals: The foundations of price formation

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Michael Hsueh
Precious metals and gold in particular have befuddled analytical attempts to explain and predict prices, perhaps because no single framework seems to work without fail over time. While some might throw up their hands and avoid precious metals altogether, our response is twofold – first, that there are tried and true basic principles that can be applied to explain precious metals performance over the economic cycle, and second, that deviations from frameworks are useful learning opportunities in and of themselves. [more]
8
June 7, 2023

World Outlook: The Waiting Game…

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
David Folkerts-Landau, Jim Reid
Deutsche Bank Research has just released the latest World Outlook, featuring updated views on economics and markets. They have called this edition “The Waiting Game…” because they maintain their call for a US recession in Q4 as the lags from tighter monetary policy really start to hit. That weak outlook is evident elsewhere too, and their forecasts don’t expect any G7 country to grow by more than 0.8% in 2024. However, when it comes to the long term they are very enthusiastic about the prospects of AI changing the nature of our economies in the years ahead, which could offer some optimism after a very challenging start to the decade. [more]
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