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World Outlook 2023: The Looming Recession

Peter Hooper

Matthew Luzzetti

Mark Wall

In this episode
Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economics Research, Matt Luzzetti, Chief US Economist and Mark Wall, Chief European Economist, discuss the world outlook 2023 as we find ourselves at a defining moment for the global economy. Inflation is running at multi-decade highs, central banks are pursuing their most aggressive tightening cycle in a couple generations, and a recession is now increasingly expected in the US and Europe. As 2023 nears, there is a growing consensus that it is shaping up will be the third-worst year for global growth so far in the 21st century, behind only the pandemic year in 2020 and the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009.

World Outlook 2023: The Looming Recession
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What we discuss
  • Economies and markets continue to be buffeted by a range of developments, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s zero Covid strategy, and the growing superpower rivalry between the US and China.
  • But as 2023 nears, there is a growing consensus that it is shaping up will be the third-worst year for global growth so far in the 21st century, behind only the pandemic year in 2020 and the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009.
  • What is the US outlook in 2023? The most likely trajectory for the US economy is for a recession to occur in the second half of 2023.
  • What is the European outlook and what will essentially define 2023? High inflation and aggressive central bank tightening are central issues, but is there more to the outlook in Europe?

 

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