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June 1, 2017
Presentation: Fewer crisis spots on the euro-area housing market Research Deutsche Bank Jochen Möbert | jochen.moebert@db.com Talking point "Fewer crisis spots on the euro-area housing market" Research Deutsche Bank Fewer crisis spots on the euro-area housing market Appendix for Deutsche Bank Research’s Talking point Jochen Möbert May 2017 jochen.moebert@db.com Research Deutsche Bank Jochen Möbert | jochen.moebert@db.com Talking point "Fewer crisis spots on the euro-area housing market" Research House prices in Germany are rising, but relative to household income no overvaluation in overall market 1 70 100 130 160 190 220 250 280 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 DE ES IT FR NL Nominal house prices 2000=100 Sources: OECD, Deutsche Bank Research 70 100 130 160 190 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 DE ES IT FR NL Price-to-income ratio Long-term average = 100 Source: OECD Research Deutsche Bank Jochen Möbert | jochen.moebert@db.com Talking point "Fewer crisis spots on the euro-area housing market" Research Austria and Belgium with high price momentum and the highest overvaluation in the euro area 2 70 100 130 160 190 220 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 AT GR IE BE FI PT Nominal house prices 2000=100 Sources: OECD, Deutsche Bank Research 70 100 130 160 190 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 AT GR IE BE FI PT Price-to-income ratio Long-term average = 100 Source: OECD Research Deutsche Bank Jochen Möbert | jochen.moebert@db.com Talking point "Fewer crisis spots on the euro-area housing market" Research Substantial reduction of risk in the euro area France with the highest risk contribution to overvaluation 3 0 10 20 30 40 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Absolute deviation Root Mean-Square-Error Price-to-income ratio Sources: OECD, Deutsche Bank Research Deviation from historical average (long-term average= 100) National deviations are weighted with the size of the housing market (number of dwellings). 0 10 20 30 40 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 DE FR IT ES NL Rest (=EA11 - Big5) Sources: OECD, Deutsche Bank Research National deviations are weighted with the size of the housing market (number of dwellings). Price-to-income ratio RMSE, deviation from historical average (long-term average = 100) Research Deutsche Bank Jochen Möbert | jochen.moebert@db.com Talking point "Fewer crisis spots on the euro-area housing market" 4 © Copyright 2017. Deutsche Bank AG, Deutsche Bank Research, 60262 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. All rights reserved. When quoting please cite “Deutsche Bank Research”. The above information does not constitute the provision of investment, legal or tax advice. Any views expressed reflect the current views of the author, which do not necessarily correspond to the opinions of Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates. Opinions expressed may change without notice. Opinions expressed may differ from views set out in other documents, including research, published by Deutsche Bank. The above information is provided for informational purposes only and without any obligation, whether contractual or otherwise. No warranty or representation is made as to the correctness, completeness and accuracy of the information given or the assessments made. In Germany this information is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, licensed to carry on banking business and to provide financial services under the supervision of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch, a member of the London Stock Exchange, authorized by UK’s Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and subject to limited regulation by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (under number 150018) and by the PRA. This information is distributed in Hong Kong by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch, in Korea by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. and in Singapore by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch. In Japan this information is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Inc. In Australia, retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any financial product referred to in this report and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. Disclaimer