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    Video: Global digital leadership: A two-horse race?overlay
    March 26, 2019
    Videos
    In the competition for global leadership in technologies like artificial intelligence, most observers see a two-horse race – between China and the United States. But what about Europe? Can it ever catch up to the galloping favorites? It won’t be easy. The digital economy in the United States has big advantages: a large domestic market, a risk-taking investment culture, and plenty of innovative companies and world-class universities. US tech giants were first-movers out of the gates, and used the network effects of the platform economy to dominate not only the US, but many other markets worldwide.
    UN Climate Summit: The most inconvenient message remains unsaidoverlay
    December 14, 2018
    Talking Point
    Ahead of and during the UN Climate Summit at Katowice, the usual warnings were heard, saying that a reduction in global carbon emissions was urgently necessary. However, these political calls are much too vague. Instead, the most inconvenient message remains unsaid: The technologies which are available today and in the foreseeable future will, in all probability, prove insufficient to counteract climate change to the necessary extent and with the necessary speed and, at the same time, allow households to stick to their consumption patterns and continue with the well-established division of labour along international production chains.
    The multiple stages of the blockchain revolution – or into the crypto future and backoverlay
    December 12, 2018
    EU Monitor
    Since the rally in 2017, the buzzwords bitcoin and blockchain have been omnipresent in the public. Still, the understanding of how much potential the technology actually offers is often rudimentary. To shed more light onto the discussion, we discuss the manifold technological facets as well as the social changes that might come on the heels of the technology. After outlining the utopia, we point out the technical as well as the social hurdles that are standing in the way of the revolution.
    Europe
    EU elections countdown #4: What about Germany?overlay
    May 6, 2019
    EU Monitor
    The May European Parliament elections could see Germany's conservative CDU/CSU and Social Democrats lose a substantial share of votes compared to the last round in 2014, whereas the Greens could overtake the SPD and become the second strongest party. Compared to European peers, the appeal of the far-right AfD to German voters remains far more limited. Still, the AfD could expand its share and rank fourth, followed by the Liberals and the far-left Leftist party. Shifts of voters' support between centrist parties will not have a substantial impact on Germany's generally pro-European stance. However, these parties still represent different views on the future of the EU, e.g. regarding further EMU deepening.<br/>
    EU elections countdown #3: Meet the EU(ro)scepticsoverlay
    April 11, 2019
    EU Monitor
    Soft and hard EU(ro)sceptic as well as anti-establishment parties could account for one-quarter up to one-third of the seats in the next EP, according to our updated poll-based projections. We have doubts about whether Eurosceptic and nationalistic groups in the EP will be able to overcome their previous discrepancies and build a significantly more united bloc. However, even without a joint agenda, Eurosceptics could make coalition building (as on the national level) much more complex and increasingly split the next EP into two camps.
    European Central Bank: Updated capital key “forces“ the ECB to reduce holdings of Italian, Spanish and French bondsoverlay
    April 3, 2019
    Chart in Focus
    At the recent meeting of the Governing Council on 7 March 2019, the ECB decided to maintain an extremely expansionary degree of monetary accommodation in future. It now announced to keep target rates at their present extraordinarily low levels at least through year-end 2019 – instead of just &quot;through the summer&quot;, as previously pledged. Furthermore, it reiterated that it intends to maintain the huge size of EMU sovereign bond holdings purchased between March 2015 and the end of December 2018 for an incalculable period of time. As a consequence, principal payments from maturing securities bought under the APP (asset purchase programme), including sovereign bonds from the PSPP portfolio (public sector purchase programme) have to be reinvested in full. This ought to support demand for EMU bonds for some time to come, putting downward pressure on yields.
    Germany
    Carbon tax: Better than the status quo, but not the optimal solutionoverlay
    May 15, 2019
    Talking Point
    For both environmental and economic reasons, a carbon tax would be superior to the current patchwork of subsidies and regulatory law (standards, bans, caps, quotas etc.) which characterises climate policy. However, the tax has a key disadvantage: while it sets a price for carbon emissions, it does not set a cap. That is why emissions trading is even superior to a carbon tax. Despite the convincing advantages of market-based in-struments, a fundamental re-orientation of German and European climate policy unfortunately appears unlikely. Instead, existing instruments will probably be adapted again and again once their negative side effects become too obvious. This will make climate policy less efficient than it could be and more expensive than necessary.
    Logistics sector decouples from industrial recession – but for how long?overlay
    May 13, 2019
    Chart in Focus
    The German logistics sector has continued to increase its overall turnover, despite the industrial recession. Logistics, one of the biggest sectors in Germany, seems to have decoupled from the industry to some extent. This is quite unusual. However, revenue growth in the logistics sector is supported by several developments: the boom in construction, a larger number of smaller deliveries due to the uptrend in e-commerce, the growing importance of value-added services and price effects. Nevertheless, the industrial recession is likely to have an impact on the logistics sector in the first half of 2019. We expect nominal revenues in the sector to stag-nate or even decline during the first half of 2019.
    State subsidies for battery cell production: For information on risks and side effects, please do not consult policymakers or recipients of incentivesoverlay
    April 18, 2019
    Talking Point
    Not least because they fear that the trend towards electromobility may cause losses in value added and job cuts in Germany, policymakers are debating subsidies for national battery cell production. From a regulatory perspective, supporting local manufacturing would be dubious and comes with high economic risks. On princi-ple, German automakers ought to be better judges than policymakers, both with regard to the indispensability of battery cell manufacturing in Germany and its long-term profitability. The state is not needed, at least not as a source of subsidies.
    Thematic
    Mapping the world's prices 2019overlay
    May 17, 2019
    Thematic Research
    This is the 8th annual Deutsche Bank survey of global prices and living standards from various countries and cities around the world. We’ve focussed the analysis on 50 cities relevant to global financial markets.
    Who pays the tariff?overlay
    May 15, 2019
    Thematic Research
    Who pays when a tariff is imposed on an imported product? Formally, of course, it is the importer that is assessed the tariff. But if the exporter has lowered her price, the tariff-inclusive price may not be higher than the prevailing price before the tariff was introduced.<br/>
    De-mystifying the HK / China Index Landscapeoverlay
    May 8, 2019
    Thematic Research
    China's USD 12-trillion stock market is a vast and complicated panoply of different share types across a wide variety of markets, exchanges and share classes. With the rising role of A-shares amongst international emerging markets (EM) indices, understanding the market dynamics of China's equity markets will be increasingly critical, as Chinese equities are set to become an increasing proportion of the global opportunity set, driven by their increasing role in EM equities. Deutsche Bank’s research team looks at the distinguishing features of China's onshore and offshore markets. <br/>
    The House View
    Balancing outoverlay
    April 11, 2019
    The House View - Snapshot
    This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views going forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, EU politics etc.) and major risks in 2019. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes.
    Spring in sight?overlay
    March 12, 2019
    The House View - Snapshot
    This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views moving forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, EU politics etc.) and major risks in 2019. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes.
    At the crossroadsoverlay
    February 8, 2019
    The House View - Snapshot
    This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views moving forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, German/EU politics etc.) and major risks in 2019. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes.
    Konzept
    Politics, populism and poweroverlay
    January 17, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Many investors think of themselves as apolitical, however, recent market turbulence has reinforced just how much politics can affect business and finance. This issue of Konzept offers incisive opinion on some pressing political issues, including the trade war between China and the US, next year’s US presidential election, European populism, technology regulation, Brexit, and more. We also examine how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are helping investors forecast the market impact of political events.
    Big data shakes up ESG investingoverlay
    October 4, 2018
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Investors have long attempted to incorporate ESG information into their stockpicking decisions, however, ESG funds have underperformed the market. This issue shows how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are finally giving investors the upper hand. Big data catches out ‘greenwashing’ and provides forward-looking market signals that outperform the market. This is a boon for investors who want to determine how ESG issues affect the fair value of stocks.
    Automation – not a job killeroverlay
    June 6, 2018
    Konzept (Engl.)
    About 250 years on from the first industrial revolution, we appear to be on the brink of a new age of automation, one dominated by complex robots and artificial intelligence. In this issue, we examine the impact of the next generation of automation on workers, industry, and society at large. Evidence from history, economics, and our industry analysts suggest that robots are more likely to complement us than replace us.
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