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    Cushioning downside risksoverlay
    September 11, 2019
    The House View - Snapshot
    Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and our expectations for central bank responses. We also outline key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, etc.), major risks in 2019, and update our cross asset market views.
    Global monetary medicine on the wayoverlay
    July 23, 2019
    The House View - Snapshot
    Read on for our discussion of the recent shift in central bank policy and the implications for the global economy. We also outline key recent/upcoming political developments (new European leadership, Brexit, trade war, etc.), major risks in 2019, and update our cross asset market views.
    Libra – a global challenger in payments and for central banks?overlay
    July 22, 2019
    EU Monitor
    Facebook’s Libra project aims to establish both a private digital currency backed by a basket of hard currencies and a global payment network. It is thus challenging many established players in the financial system, including central banks, credit institutions and payment providers. Facebook can integrate Libra services into its digital platforms and benefit from strong network effects. In Europe, Libra would enter a competitive but fragmented digital payments market. As a currency, Libra will carry a foreign exchange risk for Europeans. But if the ECB drove interest rates deeply below zero, Libra could offer an easy digital way out. The flipside, though, would be a loss of sovereignty for Europe.
    Europe
    Better Q2 results provide some relief to European banksoverlay
    September 23, 2019
    Talking Point
    Improved performance in the second quarter has given European banks hope that 2019 may still end on a more conciliatory note and that longer-term prospects are not quite as gloomy as some fear. In H1, net interest income rose year-over-year, despite unrelenting margin pressure. Other revenue components were mixed, with fee and commission income disappointing again. Loans and total assets in general increased. Banks cut expenses further, while loan loss provisions picked up from record lows. In the end, profitability and capital levels remained largely stable. Once more, the transatlantic gulf in performance widened slightly, as US banks reported another rise in net income to a new all-time high.
    Digital politics: AI, big data and the future of democracyoverlay
    August 22, 2019
    EU Monitor
    The digital transformation has enriched societal discourse through new forms of multilateral communication, but it has also amplified the spread of misinformation, echo chambers and propaganda, offering authoritarian states new means of surveillance and control. How democracies approach this challenge will be a key factor in their performance, given intensifying competition among political systems.
    Artificial intelligence in banking: A lever for profitability with limited implementation to dateoverlay
    June 4, 2019
    EU Monitor
    Artificial intelligence (AI) is a significant step forward in the digitalisation and transformation of modern businesses. Investors are lining up to be part of the imminent change. AI attracted USD 24 bn in investments globally in 2018, a twelvefold increase since 2013. Within Europe, Germany, France and the UK are the frontrunners in experimentation and in the implementation of AI. Similar to earlier examples of information technology (IT) implementation in financial services, AI promises great efficiency gains and potential revenue increases and its potential contribution to bank profitability should not be underestimated.
    Germany
    Distance to local bank branch does matter for Germansoverlay
    September 30, 2019
    Chart in Focus
    The future of bank branches has been under scrutiny for some time due to the increased usage of online and mobile banking. On top of the general trend, regional differences in demand for branch services may have important implications for the future of branch networks. Structurally fewer client visits in certain regions may exacerbate the pressure to close branches. Within Germany, the number of bank branches has declined sharply from around 40,000 in 2007 to some 28,000 in 2018.
    Climate package: No game changer for fiscal policyoverlay
    September 30, 2019
    Focus Germany
    A new (green) 'fiscal deal' in Germany? The climate protection programme is no game changer for fiscal policies as it will be largely counter-financed by additional revenues. The ecological steering effect of the climate package is also limited since the initial carbon price will be low. Speculations that Germany will finally relent and embark on a decisive fiscal policy loosening have proved to be overplayed. We stick to our call that we will not see a fiscal package unless Germany enters a severe recession. Still, Germany’s budget surpluses are set to narrow considerably in 2019/20. (Also included in this issue: German labour market, industrial production, auto industry, the view from Berlin)
    Germany's climate action package: Foul compromise or a reflection of society?overlay
    September 25, 2019
    Talking Point
    The climate action package is a classic example of political compromise. It aims to support climate protection without overextending private households and companies. Criticism is perfectly justified. In the final analysis, however, the climate action package is also a reflection of the society's attitude towards climate protection: Whilst a majority of Germans support more climate protection, only a few are willing to shoulder the financial burdens.
    Thematic
    Monthly Chart Book: October Economic Chart Book (Snapshot)overlay
    October 11, 2019
    Thematic Research
    Key highlights from Torsten Slok’s, Chief Economist, Monthly Chart Book detailing macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.
    The History and Future of Debtoverlay
    September 23, 2019
    Thematic Research
    Jim Reid, Global Head of Thematic Research & Credit Research, Deutsche Bank Research has just published his annual Long-Term Asset Return Study. This year's focus is on the History and Future of Debt. The report also have all the usual long-term returns data for dozens of countries across different asset classes tracked back over more than a century for many series.
    Monthly Chart Book: September Economic Chart Book (Snapshot)overlay
    September 10, 2019
    Thematic Research
    Key highlights from Torsten Slok’s, Chief Economist, Monthly Chart Book detailing macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.
    Corporate Bank Research
    Climate change and corporates: Past the tipping point with customers and stockmarketsoverlay
    September 18, 2019
    Corporate Bank Research
    Companies drag their heels on climate change because many managers believe that for the planet to win, profits must fall. This report argues the opposite using evidence from both the stockmarket and our own primary research into the unexpected shift in customer purchase habits over the last 12 months.
    Climate change and corporates: Past the tipping point with customers and stockmarketsoverlay
    September 18, 2019
    Corporate Bank Research
    Companies drag their heels on climate change because many managers believe that for the planet to win, profits must fall. This report argues the opposite using evidence from both the stockmarket and our own primary research into the unexpected shift in customer purchase habits over the last 12 months.
    Konzept
    How 5G will change your lifeoverlay
    July 10, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    The global 5G rollout has just begun, but behind the hype lies uncertainty and the potential for unintended consequences. This edition of Konzept seeks to answer many unresolved questions. First and foremost, we explain the tangible ways in which 5G will affect you, including the smartphone impact, the future of television, predictive maintenance, autonomous cars, smart cities and more. We also examine the geo-political disagreements, emerging market economics, and argue that the financial cost of distraction is greater than expected.
    Politics, populism and poweroverlay
    January 17, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Many investors think of themselves as apolitical, however, recent market turbulence has reinforced just how much politics can affect business and finance. This issue of Konzept offers incisive opinion on some pressing political issues, including the trade war between China and the US, next year’s US presidential election, European populism, technology regulation, Brexit, and more. We also examine how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are helping investors forecast the market impact of political events.
    Big data shakes up ESG investingoverlay
    October 4, 2018
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Investors have long attempted to incorporate ESG information into their stockpicking decisions, however, ESG funds have underperformed the market. This issue shows how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are finally giving investors the upper hand. Big data catches out ‘greenwashing’ and provides forward-looking market signals that outperform the market. This is a boon for investors who want to determine how ESG issues affect the fair value of stocks.
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