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    Prosperous countries – high CO₂-emissionsoverlay
    January 27, 2020
    Chart in Focus
    A country’s prosperity is still closely linked to its energy consumption. As 80% of the global energy consumed is based on fossil fuels, high prosperity (measured as GDP per capita) tends to imply high per-capita CO₂ emissions. France is the G20 country which is closest to the goal of being quite prosperous on the one hand and keeping its per-capita carbon emissions relatively low on the other. Nevertheless, France is far from being a climate-neutral economy (which is the political goal).
    2020 Outlook – Gaining Speedoverlay
    January 16, 2020
    The House View - Snapshot
    Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and the evolution of downside risks. We also outline our views on major central banks, key political developments, and major risks. In addition, we update our cross asset market views
    Back on trackoverlay
    December 2, 2019
    The House View - Snapshot
    Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and the evolution of downside risks. We also outline our views on major central banks, key political developments, and major risks. In addition, we update our cross asset market views.
    Europe
    EU budget 2021-2027: Europe's future sacrificed to the status quo?overlay
    February 25, 2020
    Talking Point
    Last week's special Council meeting on the next EU budget 2021-2027 ended without an agreement. When EU leaders left Brussels on Friday after close to 30 hours of negotiations, there was no timeline set for further talks. In our view, it would have been a surprise if the meeting had led to a big breakthrough, given the traditionally contested nature of negotiations between net contributors and recipients of the seven-year budget. This time, the situation is much more complicated, as Brexit leaves a sizeable gap of around EUR 60-75bn in the ~EUR 1tr budget.<br/>
    The ECB’s Strategic Review in 2020 may (slightly) change the inflation targetoverlay
    January 21, 2020
    Chart in Focus
    The global map shows the inflation targets of developed and emerging markets. In emerging economies central banks tend to have higher inflation targets than the central banks in their developed counterparts. The difference generally arises from their stronger inflation rates partly due to lower productivity in tradeable goods production in emerging markets. This key feature is likely to persist as the catch-up process of many emerging markets will continue for some time.
    Tough year over, tough year ahead for European banksoverlay
    December 19, 2019
    Talking Point
    European banks continue to strive to not fall further behind. Revenues and costs in the first three quarters of 2019 were flat compared to their levels a year ago. Remarkably, interest income rose despite even lower interest rates. Loan loss provisions edged up from record lows. Net profits fell moderately but remained solid. Balance sheet growth was the strongest in years as banks fight to hold their ground against an array of new competitors. Along with the struggle to improve revenues, 2020 may be shaped by Basel IV implementation, continuing geopolitical risk and a fragile macroeconomy.
    Germany
    German robo-advisors: March of the machines driving passive investmentsoverlay
    February 24, 2020
    Germany Monitor Household finance
    German retail clients have shown relatively little interest in passive investment alternatives, compared to traditional mutual funds. Robo-advisors, which primarily invest in ETFs, have seen the number of their clients and AuM grow. German robo-advisors could manage about EUR 25-35 bn in 2025, up from EUR 4 bn today. Their pioneer clients are largely male, middle-aged and high-income. They value full control and autonomy in their financial decisions and deal with financial matters mostly online. Still, they visit bank branches quite frequently.
    Still highly fragileoverlay
    February 10, 2020
    Focus Germany
    After very weak December data a small drop in Q4 GDP seems likely. Looking forward, the coronavirus provides a substantial risk for the expected global recovery, as hopes were pinned on an improvement of the Chinese economy. We assume that the corona outbreak will shave off 0.2pp of Germany's Q1 GDP, making a technical recession quite probable during the winter half.
    E-mobility: Remaining a niche phenomenon for now – at least without subsidiesoverlay
    January 9, 2020
    Germany Monitor
    The shift towards alternative propulsion technologies, such as e-mobility, is currently the biggest challenge for the global auto industry. So far, this structural change is driven mainly by government regulation and not so much by market forces. At the moment, electric vehicles only have significant market shares if they are heavily subsidised. While e-cars can help to reduce carbon emissions in the EU, the favourable climate effect will be smaller than many supporters of electric mobility expect. A higher market share of e-cars will lead to manageable job losses in the German auto industry; however, local factors are key for value added.
    Thematic
    Green Bonds – Increasingly Relevant in the Corporate Bond Marketoverlay
    February 18, 2020
    Thematic Research
    There were few asset classes that saw quite the stratospheric growth in 2019 like the green bond market. Now, even though it’s a decade or so old, the market is still very much in its infancy and last year we saw a bit over $250bn of green bonds issued around the world. Because this is tiny relative to the wider corporate bond market, green bonds don’t receive a lot of attention. But that is changing quickly. The growth of the green corporate bond market is impressive, more than three-quarters of the market comes from the US or Europe, with the latter making up nearly 60% alone. China makes up just 5%. Currency-wise, 95% of these bonds are denominated in either USD or EUR. At a sector level, utilities (39%) and banking (33%) dominate.
    Monthly Chart Book: February Economic Chart Book (Snapshot)overlay
    February 10, 2020
    Thematic Research
    Key highlights from Torsten Slok’s, Chief Economist, Monthly Chart Book detailing macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.
    Brexit update: a short guide to the next stage in talksoverlay
    February 3, 2020
    Thematic Research
    Brexit talks are only moving onto the next phase, the UK and EU must agree the terms of a future economic relationship by the end of the status quo transition period on December 31st 2020. The next chapter in talks is expectant to generate less in the way of intraday excitement for investors, their outcome is more important for the UK's future growth prospects and asset valuations.
    Corporate Bank Research
    The Future of Payments - Part III. Digital Currencies: the Ultimate Hard Power Tooloverlay
    January 27, 2020
    Corporate Bank Research
    This piece is the third in a series of three pieces that examines the past, present, and future of the payments industry. We analyse the unexpected results of our proprietary survey of 3,600 customers across the US, UK, China, Germany, France and Italy and forecast trends in cash, online, mobile, crypto, and blockchain. The implications for customers and business are important; the potential macro and geopolitical consequences are profound.
    The Future of Payments - Part II. Moving to Digital Wallets and the Extinction of Plastic Cardsoverlay
    January 23, 2020
    Corporate Bank Research
    This piece is the second in a series of three pieces that examines the past, present, and future of the payments industry. We analyse the unexpected results of our proprietary survey of 3,600 customers across the US, UK, China, Germany, France and Italy and forecast trends in cash, online, mobile, crypto, and blockchain. The implications for customers and business are important; the potential macro and geopolitical consequences are profound.
    The Future of Payments - Part I. Cash: the Dinosaur Will Survive ... For Nowoverlay
    January 21, 2020
    Corporate Bank Research
    When people discuss the future of payments they tend to predict the end of cash. Our view is different. Not only do we think cash will be around for a long time, we see the transition to digital payments as having the potential to do no less than rebalance global economic power.
    Konzept
    Imagine 2030overlay
    December 4, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Many ‘decade ahead’ predictions prove unreliable. And we admit this special edition of Konzept cannot be a perfect crystal ball. Regardless, we present 24 contrarian ideas for how the 2020s may evolve because we believe it is best to be prepared for the unexpected themes that may arise over the coming decade. After all, if the 2010s have taught us anything it is that the trends of the prior decade are no guide for the decade to come.
    How 5G will change your lifeoverlay
    July 10, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    The global 5G rollout has just begun, but behind the hype lies uncertainty and the potential for unintended consequences. This edition of Konzept seeks to answer many unresolved questions. First and foremost, we explain the tangible ways in which 5G will affect you, including the smartphone impact, the future of television, predictive maintenance, autonomous cars, smart cities and more. We also examine the geo-political disagreements, emerging market economics, and argue that the financial cost of distraction is greater than expected.
    Politics, populism and poweroverlay
    January 17, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Many investors think of themselves as apolitical, however, recent market turbulence has reinforced just how much politics can affect business and finance. This issue of Konzept offers incisive opinion on some pressing political issues, including the trade war between China and the US, next year’s US presidential election, European populism, technology regulation, Brexit, and more. We also examine how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are helping investors forecast the market impact of political events.
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