The Looming Recession

Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure

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The global outlook is moving in a stagflationary direction. — Inflation momentum has continued to build, leading to central bank tightening that will slow growth across the key economies. — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted key commodity markets and supply chains [more]

The Taps Still Tightening

February 10, 2023

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Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure

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After a succession of forecast downgrades, the global economy has turned a corner since the end of last year. [more]

Shipwrecked

September 29, 2022

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Since our last House View in June, the economic and market outlook has deteriorated dramatically. [more]

The gathering storm

June 24, 2022

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The global outlook is moving in a stagflationary direction. Inflation momentum has continued to build, leading to central bank tightening that will slow growth across the key economies. [more]

Prepare for a hard landing

April 22, 2022

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The storm clouds over the global economy have darkened dramatically. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to fundamental questions about Europe’s dependence on Russian energy and the continent’s geopolitical stability. [more]

Navigating perilous waters

January 13, 2022

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As we arrive in 2022, there are plenty of storm clouds on the horizon to grapple with: inflation rates in the major economies remain well above target and well above what the forecasting community expected last year; aggregate demand remains elevated; global supply-chains are still clogged; the Covid-19 pandemic continues to fester; and the geopolitical climate is also darkening. [more]

Barrelling back to stagflation?

November 11, 2021

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The short-term growth outlook has weakened amidst supply-chain issues and an energy shock that has boosted inflation. But there is still major fiscal support, whilst vaccines and other medicines will help against Covid. [more]

The New World: Moving Beyond Covid

September 9, 2021

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The global economy performed strongly over the summer, but the delta variant has led to increasingly frequent data misses versus expectations. [more]

Reopening the Global Economy

July 7, 2021

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Recent weeks have seen the global recovery motor along as expected, supported by the vaccine rollouts and a further easing of restrictions. [more]

Vaccinating the global economy

May 25, 2021

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Since our last House View publication in March, our overall view of the global economy remains broadly the same. [more]

A new chapter for the global economy

March 25, 2021

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The global economic outlook has improved significantly in recent months, and we see strong growth ahead with contained inflation pressures. [more]

Hope on the Horizon

November 25, 2020

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The global economic outlook has improved since September thanks to the positive vaccine news, and we now see global GDP returning to its pre-virus levels in Q2 2021. [more]

Navigating the New Normal

September 24, 2020

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