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German housing market: History suggests it is an inflation hedge

March 1, 2023

German housing market: History suggests it is an inflation hedge

Region:

Topic:

Analyst:

We calculate a nominal and real return triangle for German house prices from 1970 to 2022. The market offered an inflation hedge in the past. This is in particular true for periods of high inflation as in these periods house prices even exceeded inflation. The huge supply shortage and rising rents are further arguments for a bottoming out of house prices in 2023. [more]

Deutsche Fassung ➜

OTC derivatives trading: First signs of a shift from London towards EU financial centres

March 3, 2023

Region:

Europe

Topic:

Banking and financial markets

Analyst:

Ursula Walther

Chart in Focus

London continues to be the leading trading hub for OTC interest rate derivatives with a market share of 46% and an average daily turnover of USD 2.6 tr. However, the UK has lost ground since 2019 when its market share was still 51%. [more]

German energy supply: Oil, coal and renewables are gaining in importance

March 2, 2023

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Sectors and resources

Analyst:

Eric Heymann

Chart in Focus

Despite the lower absolute energy imports, Germany had to pay significantly more for its imports because of higher prices. Total primary energy demand in Germany fell by just under 5% in 2022. [more]

Europe finally catching up on the US?

December 20, 2022

Region:

Europe

Topic:

Banking and financial markets

Analyst:

Jan Schildbach

Chart in Focus

For more than a decade, European banks have sought to catch up and narrow the gap to their US peers. [more]

Significant drop in production in the chemical industry

December 12, 2022

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Sectors and resources

Analyst:

Eric Heymann

Chart in Focus

No industrial sector in Germany has been affected as severely by the gas shortage and higher gas prices as the chemical industry. The industry's production level in October 2022 was 22.5% lower than in the 4th quarter of 2021. [more]

The end of negative ECB interest rates: German banks reduce their vault cash

September 14, 2022

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Banking and financial markets

Analyst:

Heike Mai

Chart in Focus

On July 21, the ECB announced that it would raise the interest rate on the deposit facility from -0.5% to 0%, effective July 27. [more]

Shift in employment structure leaves the hospitality industry in a bad position

July 27, 2022

Region:

Topic:

Analyst:

The German labour market held up well during the pandemic and even gained momentum from 2021 onwards. In the meantime, a shift in the employment structure took place that brings the shortage of skilled labour back into focus. [more]

Germany's current account: The end of criticism

July 21, 2022

Region:

Topic:

Analyst:

Germany's current account is in flux. Currently, the "terms of trade" shock is reducing the surplus in the goods balance. But structural factors such as the reduced importance of industry and demographics also point to lower surpluses. [more]

Construction industry: Uncertainty shock subsides

June 29, 2022

Region:

Topic:

Analyst:

In the last months the strong headwinds for the construction industry are expected to ease as commodity prices fall and material and labor shortages begin to decline. [more]

Voter demographics – is Germany a gerontocracy?

August 19, 2021

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Economic and european policy, Germany's super election year 2021

Analyst:

Barbara Boettcher, Ursula Walther

Chart in Focus

For the German federal elections in September, about 60m voters are called to cast their ballot. [more]

Social cohesion top priority as no. of ICU patients drops sharply

June 4, 2021

Region:

Topic:

Analyst:

The third COVID-19 wave in Germany is ebbing. The number of ICU patients – one of the key parameters of the pandemic – peaked at the end of April, at above 5,100 cases. At the end of May the number was below 2,500. [more]

Returns from residential real estate: Red and orange predominate

December 16, 2020

Region:

Topic:

Analyst:

The COVID-19 crisis has intensified the lack of profitable low-risk investments, which is why numerous investors probably regard the German residential market as an attractive alternative to the bond markets. [more]

Youth unemployment pre and post COVID-19

July 14, 2020

Region:

Topic:

Analyst:

The unemployment rates of teenagers and young adults were already attracting attention during the financial and euro crisis. The corona crisis has again led to massive distortions on the labour markets in many countries. [more]

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