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The History (and Future) of Recessions

September 20, 2023

The History (and Future) of Recessions

Region:

International

Thematic Research

Analyst:

Galina Pozdnyakova, Henry Allen, Jim Reid

PDF 131k

The word “recession” has been one of the most widely used in markets over the last 12 months. In their annual Long-Term Asset Return Study, Jim Reid, Henry Allen and Galina Pozdnyakova focus on understanding what history tells us about the frequency, depth and duration of recessions, along with what causes them using cycle data stretching back to 1700. The team also takes a look at their impact on asset prices, and the likely shape of them going forward. [more]

World Outlook: The Race Against Time...

November 28, 2023

Region:

International

Topic:

Macroeconomics

Analyst:

David Folkerts-Landau, Jim Reid

Thematic Research

In our World Outlook for 2024, we outline how we’ve had a fairly consistent macro narrative over the past 2 3 years and we continue to see this as a classic policy led boom bust cycle that will culminate in a US recession. [more]

Where's my AI revolution? Practical ways you can get less chat, more action

November 8, 2023

Region:

International

Analyst:

Adrian Cox, Galina Pozdnyakova

Thematic Research

Artificial Intelligence has been everywhere and nowhere since the launch of ChatGPT a year ago. [more]

PRI Conference: Top 8 takeaways

October 24, 2023

Region:

International

Topic:

Sustainability

Analyst:

Debbie Jones, Luke Templeman, Punyadip Cheema

Thematic Research

Konnichwa! We spent most of our first week of October at this year’s Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) Conference held in Tokyo, Japan (Oct 4-6th). [more]

Labour "power gap" to hurt corporate margins

October 9, 2023

Region:

International

Analyst:

Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga

Thematic Research

Company margins may soon feel the pinch from rising labour power. Recent events, like Biden joining UAW picket lines and Trump's address in Detroit, highlight the wide 'power gap' between companies and their employees. [more]

The Future of Money

September 29, 2023

Region:

International

Analyst:

Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Marion Laboure

Thematic Research

The past decade has challenged our understanding of money as payment alternatives and new forms of currency entered our everyday lives. [more]

Six key AI themes you missed while you were at the beach

September 21, 2023

Region:

International

Analyst:

Adrian Cox, Galina Pozdnyakova

Thematic Research

In their latest report, Adrian Cox and Galina Pozdnyakova take us through six important themes that began to emerge over the past few months, proving that issues around AI continue to be top of mind in all areas of the financial, political, and technological world despite a typically more relaxed summer pace. [more]

Assets that haven't moved yet

September 12, 2023

Region:

International

Analyst:

Galina Pozdnyakova, Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga

Thematic Research

Intriguing Market Insights from Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga and Galina Pozdnyakova. Despite being closer to a Fed pause, many rate-sensitive assets are yet to recover. Investors are cautious, perhaps due to last year's rapid drops. [more]

Is disinflation different this time around?

July 26, 2023

Region:

International

Analyst:

Matthew Luzzetti, Peter Hooper

Thematic Research

Over the past year, the view that a recession would be needed to enable the Fed to achieve its firm target of returning inflation to 2% has gone from long shot to consensus view to, essentially, a coin toss. [more]

AI in action: how first movers are using ChatGPT

July 3, 2023

Analyst:

Adrian Cox, Jim Reid, Olga Cotaga

Thematic Research

FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is rampant as enterprises inundate tech firms demanding AI products, yet there are still operational, governance and cultural barriers. [more]

Can AI replace humans in thematic investing?

June 22, 2023

Region:

International

Analyst:

Ganchi Zhang

Thematic Research

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing the way investments are made, including thematic investing. In a new report by the quantitative research team, they provide a comprehensive framework for using AI in active thematic investing. [more]

Precious Metals: The foundations of price formation

June 20, 2023

Region:

International

Analyst:

Michael Hsueh

Thematic Research

Precious metals and gold in particular have befuddled analytical attempts to explain and predict prices, perhaps because no single framework seems to work without fail over time. [more]