When you access this link, you are leaving the Deutsche Bank website. The information provided on any websites accessed through this link has been produced by independent providers and Deutsche Bank does not endorse or accept any responsibility for information provided on any such sites. Any opinions or recommendations expressed on such other websites are solely those of the independent providers and are not the opinions or recommendations of Deutsche Bank. The existence of a link from this Deutsche Bank page to any other such websites does not constitute a recommendation or other approval by Deutsche Bank of such websites or any provider thereof. With the following buttons, you accept or reject the above-mentioned information.
Barbara BoettcherEric HeymannMarc SchattenbergSebastian BeckerStefan Schneider
Germany has got COVID-19 under control faster than many other countries.
Germany has got COVID-19 under control faster than many other countries. It also recorded one of the lowest infection fatality rates among the G10 countries. The complete fiscal policy U-turn in response to COVID-19 induced economic damage should allow the German economy to weather this crisis better than many other countries – although the impact will still be massive. We have identified six structural features of the German society contributing to its superior collective resilience. Due to these features we expect the German recession in 2020 to be less severe than in most other industrial countries. This crisis resilience should also further improve Germany’s relative position among the major industrial economies once COVID-19 has been overcome. And this will increase pressure on Germany to play an even more supportive role within EMU/EU in the medium term. [more]
The catalysts for a strong expansion of the German economy during the summer half are falling into place: Global demand is picking up strongly and the vaccination momentum is finally accelerating. [more]
Given the magnitude of the recent spike/fall in polls for the Greens/Conservatives, we were asking ourselves, whether such a spike might be a one-off and if approval rates are going to mean-revert any time soon? [more]
German GDP: Down (Q1) but not out (in 2021). The longer “hard” lockdown, weather-related losses in construction and impairments in car output due to chip supply problems have prompted us to cut our Q1 GDP forecast to -2% qoq. [more]
The COVID cycle and vaccination progress will drive the economy in 2021. We expect that infection rates will not come down decisively before Q2. By summer vaccination numbers should reach critical mass. [more]
We have lifted our GDP forecast for 2020 to -5.5% and see the economy expanding by 4.5% in 2021. An important factor is that the rebound during Q2 – when GDP contracted by 9.7% – turned out more dynamic than expected. [more]
The two August mass demonstrations against the corona measures in Berlin attracted wide media attention and rattled the public. Many felt confirmed in their feeling that the corona crisis is driving society further apart. [more]