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Germany's super election year 2021

After 16 years of dominating German and to a large extent European politics, Chancellor Merkel does not run again in this year's federal election. The election dynamics and possible coalitions are more uncertain than ever amid the corona pandemic. Still, after one and a half decades of protecting the status quo against various crisis, the new government needs to define Germany's domestic policy course in a range of fields such as environment, social security, industrial policy/competiveness and digitalisation, to name just a few, and even more importantly Germany's role in the EU and globally.

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July 9, 2020
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With Germany’s rather successful COVID-19 strategy and the recovery and stimulus packages broadly agreed, the question of Merkel’s successor and the next German federal elections in autumn 2021 are gradually getting closer political attention again. Parties are currently not only preparing for the election, but are also arguing about the electoral law: the present law allowed the Bundestag to grow from 598 mandates to the current record size of 709 mandates, with the 2021 election likely to result in an even bigger number of seats. The Bundestag just failed to pass a reform before the summer break and thus in time for the 2021 elections. However, political and public pressure to find a solution is high and will keep the issue on the political agenda. [more]
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June 10, 2020
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Germany has got COVID-19 under control faster than many other countries. It also recorded one of the lowest infection fatality rates among the G10 countries. The complete fiscal policy U-turn in response to COVID-19 induced economic damage should allow the German economy to weather this crisis better than many other countries – although the impact will still be massive. We have identified six structural features of the German society contributing to its superior collective resilience. Due to these features we expect the German recession in 2020 to be less severe than in most other industrial countries. This crisis resilience should also further improve Germany’s relative position among the major industrial economies once COVID-19 has been overcome. And this will increase pressure on Germany to play an even more supportive role within EMU/EU in the medium term. [more]
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