Thematic Research

People often ask me how we choose our themes of the year ahead. It is not a hard science, but there is a framework we use. It starts by asking the following question: “What policies and developments in the economic, business, and political world are unsustainable, and what will it take for them to become sustainable?”. [more]

Overall, was COP27 a success or failure? The answer likely depends on your expectations going into the conference. The event took place against a difficult geopolitical backdrop, rising inflation and an energy security crisis that some nations interpret as support for energy diversification strategies that align with fossil fuel growth. In a recent dbSustainability report the team discuss top 8 takeaways from COP27. [more]

Sustainability regulation, climate change, investor expectations, and consumer preferences have enhanced ESG related risks and opportunities. As a result, European Banks are putting significant resources towards environmental, social and governance objectives. [more]

The next iteration of UNFCC’s Conference of Parties, COP 27 is taking place in Egypt. As part of the Global South and home to one of world’s most diverse marine life, the location of Sharm-El-Sheikh in Egypt is quite relevant to this year’s conference. The event serves as the United Nation’s (UN) annual Climate Change summit and is intended to bring ~200 countries together to accelerate action towards goals of the Paris Agreement (2015) and limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. [more]

Amidst the backdrop of rampant food inflation, this year’s COP27 in the Egyptian city of Sharm El-Sheikh (November 6-18) will be critical. That is because food inflation has been stronger than overall inflation. In fact, in March the US hit an inflection point when food and beverages CPI outpaced broader CPI. This is not just a US issue. The food inflation problem is a global phenomenon. [more]

While the "Space" industry emerged many decades ago, public interest significantly diminished toward the latter part of the 20th century as entrepreneurs mostly avoided the sector due to high barriers to entry, regulation, and limited deployment opportunities.

Edison Yu, lead coverage of Global Space & Aerial Mobility, believes two developments can change this and ensure space will be the next frontier for limitless growth: 1) the emergence of a new "Space Race," both between industry titans (Musk vs. Bezos) and between nations (US vs. China/Russia), has captivated audiences around the world and 2) the deployment of mega constellations (Starlink, OneWeb, Amazon Kuiper) has facilitated massive investment in infrastructure and supply chains.

Read the new report ‘The Big Rocket Shortage’ to find out more. [more]

Emerging economies face an extremely challenging environment. Rising USD and EUR yields as the Fed and ECB raise policy rates quickly to try to stabilize prices; depreciating currencies, especially against the dollar, as a consequence; slowing growth; extreme climate events and the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine in the form of a further boost to food and fuel prices. [more]

In a new annual report ‘Long-term asset return study 2022: How we got here and where we’re going…..’ our thematics team explore 2022, which has been one of the toughest years for financial markets in decades. Bonds and equities are declining in unison, and we are now in the first global bear market for government bonds in 70 years. Read an extract touching on these themes, but with the main report focusing on how we got into the perilous economic, social and political situation in which we find ourselves today. Clients of Deutsche Bank Research can access the full report here. [more]

Corinne Blanchard and Krisztina Katai have been honoured as ‘Rising Stars of Equity Research’ by the Business Insider publication. [more]

We usually only predict our top themes once a year. But the extraordinary changes in the first six months of 2022 mean the second six months are shaping up to be very different to everyone’s expectations. So in this publication we zero-in on the five most important themes that we believe will impact the rest of the year. [more]