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Thematic Research

Excerpts of selected reports as well as fundamental analyses which were originally published on Client Research Portal. 
 
151 (121-130)
    
September 13, 2018

EM Monthly: Knock on ...

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Drausio Giacomelli, Hongtao Jiang, Juliana Lee, Kubilay Ozturk, Sameer Goel
EM stress is still largely idiosyncratic, but the risk of a broader fallout is increasing. We have argued that external factors account for two-thirds to three-fourths of EM’s performance – especially for credit markets. The worsening of these external conditions is exposing the weakest links across EM and taking a disproportionate toll on several important economies. So far they are bearing the brunt of EM’s stress. [more]
121
September 5, 2018

Back-to-school report on US and European credit

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Craig Nicol, Jim Reid, Michal Jezek, Nick Burns
It remains a macro world for credit, with no real concerns of a fundamental nature within the corporate bond universe. The problem is that the macro world has become increasingly complicated this year. At the start of 2018, when markets were extraordinarily becalmed, we did feel that 2018 would see the return of volatility and that credit spreads would widen in sympathy. The reality is that 2018 has certainly deviated from our roadmap even if spreads have migrated to roughly where we thought they would be at this stage of the year. [more]
122
June 11, 2018

US economic balances with partners

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Yi Xiong, Zhiwei Zhang
China ran a $376bn trade surplus against the US in 2017. US goods exports to China are worth only a quarter of US imports from China. However, these numbers do not capture the true size of US business interest in China. They are at odds with the fact, for example, that Chinese consumers own more active iPhones and buy more General Motor cars than US consumers do. These cars and phones are sold to China not through US exports, but through Chinese subsidiaries of US multinational enterprises. [more]
125
June 6, 2018

Konzept # 13: Automation – not a job killer

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Jim Reid, Luke Templeman, Sahil Mahtani
About 250 years on from the first industrial revolution, we appear to be on the brink of a new age of automation, one dominated by complex robots and artificial intelligence. In this issue, we examine the impact of the next generation of automation on workers, industry, and society at large. Evidence from history, economics, and our industry analysts suggest that robots are more likely to complement us than replace us. [more]
126
June 4, 2018

The Asia Economist: Where are we in the cycle?

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Michael Spencer
Asian economies have, collectively, grown at a remarkably stable rate over the past five years. Twenty-six consecutive quarters of GDP growth between 6% and 7% despite an occasionally challenging external environment – including the euro crisis, a volatile Japanese economy and large variations in energy prices – was a much better outcome than we, and we dare say most other observers, had expected. [more]
127
May 31, 2018

FX Blueprint: Italian Job

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
George Saravelos, Oliver Harvey, Robin Winkler
Once more, Europe is becoming messy. We did not expect politics to turn so negative this year. The Italians face a difficult task of restoring investor confidence, and Italy is too important to ignore. But European volatility does not translate into US positivity; we believe the underlying dollar outlook remains negative, and the US midterms will add to political noise. Beyond the dollar, volatility breeds opportunity, and we identify numerous trades in currency crosses that should not be sensitive to messy American or European politics. [more]
129
May 30, 2018

Mapping the World's Prices 2018

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Craig Nicol, Jim Reid
In our 7th annual DB survey of global prices and living standards, we rank 50 cities that are relevant to global financial markets. We consider Quality of Life, Salaries, Rents and Disposable After-Rent Income, and our Weekend Getaway, Cheap Date and Bad Habits indices. We then look at the individual series of the prices of goods and services. Our survey highlights relative prices around the globe and how they have changed over time. [more]
130
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