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Germany

Germany has recovered well from the global financial and euro crisis. To make sure that the future challenges are successfully addressed, a balance between sustainable growth and social participation are essential. To achieve these objectives further reforms are needed as well as an improvement of the macroeconomic framework. Policymakers, businesspeople and the public must face up to their responsibilities. DB Research analyses the economic and political conflicting ideas and incorporates possible solutions into economic and political outlooks. These are based on national sector research, global business cycle and financial forecasts as well as the assessment of international political developments.

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June 22, 2022

19th Annual Deutsche Bank Global Consumer Conference: 7 Key Insights

Region:
Germany
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Stephen Powers, Tom Sykes
After two years in the virtual world Deutsche Bank Research returned to Paris to host another highly successful Global Consumer Conference. Around 700 people and including 90 companies, attended over the three days of the conference. Company and investor engagement was extremely high with more than 7,000 meeting requests. Tom Sykes, Head of European Consumer Staples and Stephen Powers, Head of US Consumer Staples, co-hosts of the event, said: “Feedback has been very positive from the companies and investment communities and we look forward to seeing everybody again in Paris in 2023 for our celebratory 20th year!” [more]
42
May 31, 2022

Deutsche Bank Research hosts 25th dbAccess German Corporate Conference

Region:
Germany
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Tim Rokossa
Deutsche Bank Research last week hosted its annual dbAccess German Corporate Conference for the 25th time. Joining the event this year were 300 participants, 70 of them attendees from top German blue-chip companies, representing around two thirds of the DAX index. There were more than 1,000 meeting requests between corporates and investors at the conference. [more]
43
May 20, 2022

Struggling with the historic watershed

Region:
Germany
Focus Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Heike Mai, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
In this edition of Focus Germany we look at the cyclical, short-term challenges brought about by the Ukraine war with regard to growth, inflation and public finances. We also analyse the more structural longer-term challenges, such as reducing the countries’ energy dependence on Russia and the governing coalition’s efforts to integrate new priorities precipitated by the historic watershed into its already very ambitious agenda. [more]
44
May 10, 2022

Outlook for the German residential property market 2022 and beyond. Base case: Rising overvaluations, end of the cycle in the near future, subdued price corrections

Region:
Germany
Germany Monitor
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
We expect the German residential property market cycle to come to an end during the current decade. A combination of our different approaches suggests that, despite the uncertainties, the cycle will probably end in 2024. Prices will not necessarily undergo a massive correction from their peak, our baseline scenario foresees an isolated ending of the cycle. As migration inflows were low and new construction activity has been dynamic during the pandemic, fundamental supply shortages are a thing of the past for many German cities. The current refugee wave will only temporarily weigh on the market. [more]
45
May 5, 2022

Extraordinary semiconductor cycle triggered by one-time events, cyclical and geopolitical effects

Region:
Germany
Germany Monitor
Topic:
Digital, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Hermann P. Rapp, Jochen Moebert
In 2021, global sales in the semiconductor industry reached an all-time high of USD 556 bn. Despite this record figure, the industry currently faces severe challenges as the present semiconductor cycle is characterized by a triple whammy: Huge demand due to a boost for digitalization, COVID-related and non-COVID related supply shortages and geopolitical tensions. Due to the sharp rise in chip demand, new chip factories are currently being built in the US, Asia and Europe to meet rising demand over the next decade. We think, the present sales cycle will be extraordinary long. [more]
46
March 25, 2022

German energy supply at a historical turning point

Region:
Germany
Germany Monitor
Topic:
Sectors and resources, Sustainability
Analyst:
Eric Heymann
Despite many years of expansion of renewable energies, Germany is – as most other industrialised countries in the world are – still dependent on fossil fuels. Germany imports close to 70% of its energy resources with Russia currently the most important supplier of fossil fuels. Germany aims to reduce its dependency on energy imports from Russia as fast as possible and plans to massively expand renewable energies but will also invest in LNG infrastructure to diversify gas supply. The short-term risk of being cut off from Russian gas and oil supply is more pronounced in the heating market and less severe in the electricity sector. A faster expansion of renewables is a consequence of the current energy crisis, but no short-term solution given limitations on the supply side. [more]
47
March 4, 2022

War in Ukraine – New realities 2.0

Region:
Germany
Focus Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jan Schildbach, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
War in Ukraine – slowing but not ending the German recovery. In a moderate economic scenario (which is our new baseline forecast) we expect German GDP to grow by between 2 ½% and 3% (old forecast 4%). Surging energy prices should push the annual inflation rate to around 5 ½% in 2022. Government spending is expected to be ramped up by 1 ¼ and 1 ½ pp, limiting the overall growth loss. In a more severe scenario headline inflation could rise to between 6 ½% and 7%, as oil and gas deliveries are at least temporarily halted. Annual GDP growth should be a meagre 1% to 1 ½%. [more]
48
February 21, 2022

Germany at the forefront of the energy transition

Region:
Germany
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Debbie Jones, James Brand
James Brand, Head of European Utility Research has just published a new report discussing the ambitious targets set by Germany's coalition government, arguably Europe's most ambitious decarbonisation targets. The targets aims to transform Germany's power market, reaching 80% renewable generation by 2030 while closing its remaining nuclear plants and phasing out coal and could put Germany at the forefront of the energy transition. He uses an hourly German power market model to analyse how its targeted mix can adapt to the biggest challenges of energy transition: renewable intermittency and demand seasonality. [more]
49
February 21, 2022

Germany at the forefront of the energy transition

Region:
Germany
Podzept (Podcast series)
Topic:
Sectors and resources, Sustainability
Analyst:
Debbie Jones, James Brand
James Brand, Head of European Utility Research discusses with Debbie Jones, Global Head of ESG Company Research the ambitious targets set by Germany's coalition government, arguably Europe's most ambitious decarbonisation targets. The targets aims to transform Germany's power market, reaching 80% renewable generation by 2030 while closing its remaining nuclear plants and phasing out coal. It could put Germany at the forefront of the energy transition. [more]
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