International

China ran a $376bn trade surplus against the US in 2017. US goods exports to China are worth only a quarter of US imports from China. However, these numbers do not capture the true size of US business interest in China. They are at odds with the fact, for example, that Chinese consumers own more active iPhones and buy more General Motor cars than US consumers do. These cars and phones are sold to China not through US exports, but through Chinese subsidiaries of US multinational enterprises. [mehr]

Trägt man in diesen Tagen über Bitcoin, Blockchain und Kryptowährungen vor, steht man vor der Frage: Diskutiert man die Technologie oder präsentiert man direkt die gesellschaftlichen und ökonomischen Implikationen? Seinen Zuhörern in wenigen Minuten einen Zugang zu einer komplexen Technologie zu vermitteln, ist riskant. Schnell verliert man sich in Alices Kaninchenbau aus den Augen. Doch die Zuhörer können ebenso ratlos zurückbleiben, wenn man direkt die potenziell revolutionären Implikationen anspricht. Aufgrund dieses Dilemmas und der Komplexität von Kryptosystemen wollen wir Ihnen hier die Technologie anhand von Metaphern näherbringen. Wir hoffen, dass Sie uns so auf die Reise ins Blockchain-Universum folgen. [mehr]

Asian economies have, collectively, grown at a remarkably stable rate over the past five years. Twenty-six consecutive quarters of GDP growth between 6% and 7% despite an occasionally challenging external environment – including the euro crisis, a volatile Japanese economy and large variations in energy prices – was a much better outcome than we, and we dare say most other observers, had expected. [mehr]

'Reattachment' stocks have begun to outperform The dislocation of stock prices from underlying profitability since the financial crisis is well known. However, their reattachment is finally in full swing. [mehr]

Once more, Europe is becoming messy. We did not expect politics to turn so negative this year. The Italians face a difficult task of restoring investor confidence, and Italy is too important to ignore. But European volatility does not translate into US positivity; we believe the underlying dollar outlook remains negative, and the US midterms will add to political noise. Beyond the dollar, volatility breeds opportunity, and we identify numerous trades in currency crosses that should not be sensitive to messy American or European politics. [mehr]

In our 7th annual DB survey of global prices and living standards, we rank 50 cities that are relevant to global financial markets. We consider Quality of Life, Salaries, Rents and Disposable After-Rent Income, and our Weekend Getaway, Cheap Date and Bad Habits indices. We then look at the individual series of the prices of goods and services. Our survey highlights relative prices around the globe and how they have changed over time. [mehr]

Nach einem Jahr mit kräftigem und weitgehend synchronem globalen Wachstum hat sich die Dynamik in diesem Jahr zweifelsohne abgeschwächt. Daher sind Sorgen um den Wachstumszyklus und die möglichen Auswirkungen auf riskante Vermögenswerte aufgekommen. [mehr]

Entwicklungen in den Bereichen künstlicher Intelligenz und Robotik haben weitreichende wirtschaftliche und soziopolitische Folgen, von denen einige bereits heute spürbar sind. Dennoch ist bislang schwer abzusehen, wohin uns der weitere Fortschritt in diesen Bereichen führen wird. In den Volkswirtschaften rund um den Globus wird sich die Ausbreitung von KI-Technologien und Robotik wahrscheinlich in unterschiedlicher Weise auswirken. Beispielsweise könnten wohlhabende Industrienationen ihre Produktion zunehmend wieder aus dem Ausland zurückholen. Um in wirtschaftlicher und gesellschaftlicher Hinsicht einen möglichst großen Nutzen zu erzielen, muss ein globaler Kompromiss zwischen dem erfolgreichen Fördern zentraler Technologien und Branchen sowie dem Vermeiden von zunehmendem Protektionismus und „Wissenskriegen“ gefunden werden. Da sich der technologische Wandel und das damit verbundene Entstehen neuer Geschäftsmodelle kaum verlangsamen dürften, ist offen, ob Regierungen und Regulierungsbehörden mit diesem Tempo Schritt halten können. [mehr]

The Panmunjom Declaration by the two Koreas reiterates their earlier calls not only for a permanent peace and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but also for economic cooperation as set forth in the 2007 Declaration. The latter identifies various infrastructure projects that would see South Korea integrated into the Eurasian continent through North Korea. These could result in significant cuts to South Korea's transportation and fuel costs. Moreover, broader economic cooperation between the two Koreas would give South Korea access not only to North Korea's cheap, literate, and highly organized labor but also its vast natural resources. Although the Panmunjom Declaration also calls for disarmament of the two Koreas, any significant progress in this area, as well as in broader economic cooperation, depends on a potential US-NK nuclear deal. Given past experience, the negotiation and implementation of a US-NK agreement is likely to take many months at least. In this report, we discuss potential benefits that South Korea could enjoy from economic cooperation with North Korea. [mehr]

Emerging Markets and the Global Economy in the Month Ahead: The source of the recent correction is benign: a repricing of US growth with the EU still poised to grow above potential. With few exceptions (such as Turkey and Argentina) EM inflation remains mostly near or below targets so that forex (FX) weakness is unlikely to trigger meaningful CB responses that could disrupt EM growth – which has yet to catch up with DM. However, USD strength poses a more binding and direct risk of tighter credit conditions for EM than US yields. Still, we would need to see EUR/USD closer to 1.05 for credit conditions to bind. [mehr]