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Henry Allen

31 Documents
    
September 20, 2023

The History (and Future) of Recessions

Region:
International
Analyst:
Galina Pozdnyakova, Henry Allen, Jim Reid
Thematic Research
1
The word “recession” has been one of the most widely used in markets over the last 12 months. In their annual Long-Term Asset Return Study, Jim Reid, Henry Allen and Galina Pozdnyakova focus on understanding what history tells us about the frequency, depth and duration of recessions, along with what causes them using cycle data stretching back to 1700. The team also takes a look at their impact on asset prices, and the likely shape of them going forward. [more]
March 8, 2023

The lessons of history: which historic period is most like today?

Region:
International
Analyst:
Henry Allen, Jim Reid
Thematic Research
2
Something we’re often asked is which era in history is most like this one. Perhaps the obvious answer is the 1970s, given the energy shock and high inflation. Others have pointed to the late-90s and early-2000s, when the dot com bubble burst and big tech valuations fell substantially. Or maybe it’s more like the 1960s, another era where policymakers moved to fine-tune
economies amidst low unemployment, but which saw inflation get increasingly out of control. [more]
September 29, 2022

Shipwrecked

Region:
International
Analyst:
Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure
The House View - Snapshot
4
Since our last House View in June, the economic and market outlook has deteriorated dramatically. We are in the midst of a historic bursting of the bond bubble, and a once-in-a-generation equity revaluation, combined with a sustained flight into the USD. The latter has been driven by geopolitical consideration as well as the failure of the ECB and the BoE to act as decisively on inflation as the Fed. Our street-leading prediction of a US recession by end-2023 has become increasingly mainstream, and we also expect the Euro Area and German economy to contract by at least -2% and -3% respectively next year. [more]
September 28, 2022

Long-Term Asset Return Study 2022: How we got here and where we're going…

Region:
International
Analyst:
Adrian Cox, Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Luke Templeman
Thematic Research
5
In a new annual report ‘Long-term asset return study 2022: How we got here and where we’re going…..’ our thematics team explore 2022, which has been one of the toughest years for financial markets in decades. Bonds and equities are declining in unison, and we are now in the first global bear market for government bonds in 70 years. Read an extract touching on these themes, but with the main report focusing on how we got into the perilous economic, social and political situation in which we find ourselves today. Clients of Deutsche Bank Research can access the full report here. [more]
June 15, 2022

Investing during Stagflation: What happened in the 1970s

Analyst:
Henry Allen, Jim Reid
Thematic Research
8
With growing fears that we’re heading for stagflation, investors are increasingly asking how they should be positioning for such an environment. Unfortunately, the headline takeaways from the 1970s are pretty bad – in real terms it was a terrible decade for equities and bonds across multiple countries. Whilst this decade is young, and the high inflation has only been around for just over a year so far, we can already see similar patterns between how different assets performed in the 1970s and how they’ve been doing today. [more]
April 22, 2022

Prepare for a hard landing

Region:
International
Analyst:
Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure
The House View - Snapshot
9
The storm clouds over the global economy have darkened dramatically. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to fundamental questions about Europe’s dependence on Russian energy and the continent’s geopolitical stability. It has also significantly pushed up commodity prices, exacerbating above-target inflation, and creating a serious risk that longer-term expectations become unanchored. [more]
January 13, 2022

Navigating perilous waters

Region:
International
Analyst:
Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure
The House View - Snapshot
10
As we arrive in 2022, there are plenty of storm clouds on the horizon to grapple with: inflation rates in the major economies remain well above target and well above what the forecasting community expected last year; aggregate demand remains elevated; global supply-chains are still clogged; the Covid-19 pandemic continues to fester; and the geopolitical climate is also darkening. The odds of an accident have risen and the likelihood of a soft landing in 2022 requires some favourable assumptions and a modicum of good luck. [more]
September 9, 2021

The New World: Moving Beyond Covid

Region:
International
Analyst:
Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure
The House View - Snapshot
12
The global economy performed strongly over the summer, but the delta variant has led to increasingly frequent data misses versus expectations. This has seen us downgrade our near-term US growth outlook just as high inflation readings have shifted attention to when central banks will taper asset purchases. These inflation fears initially centred on the US, but the Euro Area now has its highest inflation in almost a decade as well. For now investors are still convinced, as is priced in, that inflation will be a temporary phenomenon that will mostly self-correct.  [more]
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