1. Research
  2. About us
  3. Analysts
  4. Analysts by first name

Focus Germany

Focus Germany deals with macroeconomic and economic policy issues in Germany. Each issue also contains a timetable of financial and economic policy events as well as a detailed data monitor of German economic indicators.

6 Documents
November 5, 2014
Region:
1
We have cut our German GDP growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.3% for 2014 and further from 1.5% to 0.8% for 2015. We do not see Germany falling into a technical recession in Q3. But the 6 month slump of the ifo index has increased the risk that we might see a negative GDP print in Q4 2014 or Q1 2015. The positive effect of weaker oil prices will be offset by wage growth slowing from 3% plus this year towards 2% in 2015, as export-orientated sectors will respond to weaker external demand. Further topics in this issue: German industry: Temporary slowdown; German construction: Robust investment, but price momentum slowing; Inheritance tax: Constitutional Court ruling likely to weigh harder on business heirs; 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall: "Blooming landscapes" only in part. [more]
September 30, 2014
Region:
2
The recent positive surprises provided by real economic indicators have for now banished concerns that Germany might slide into recession in Q3. However, the ongoing geopolitical risks and the question marks hanging over the expected cyclical upturn will probably lead to weaker growth in exports and company investment. That is why we have scaled back our growth forecast for the winter half-year 2014/2015. Thus, we have lowered our forecast from 1.8% to 1.5%. In our current issue we also address Germany’s fiscal position, we analyse the consequences of potential Russian gas supply disruptions and we take a look at the investment behaviour of German households. [more]
May 2, 2014
Region:
3
Given the continued strong employment build-up and wage increases as well as slight increase in hours worked disposable income should grow by 2.5% even though monetary social benefits and income from self-employment and from investment are expected to rise only at a sub-par rate. Due to the falling inflation rate this allows real private consumption to rise by 1.2% in 2014, and might even have some upside potential. From 2015 the federal government plans to deliver a balanced budget. This year the federal budget will already run a structural surplus. Budgetary risks arise from higher interest rates and a weakening economy, as the budget includes barely any reserves for them while being exposed to potential additional spending on adjustments that need to be made to the minimum subsistence level (basic personal allowance) and children's allowance or for increases that need to be made to infrastructure spending. [more]
November 29, 2013
Region:
4
The coalition intends to hugely increase pension benefits, introduce a minimum wage and increase public spending. There is as little provision for tax hikes (SPD campaign issues) as for tax relief (CDU and CSU pledges). Trend growth, in particular labour supply, will be weakened. Inefficiencies in energy policy will be inadequately addressed. The sustainability of public finances will be substantially reduced. [more]
October 1, 2013
Region:
5
After the strong showing of the conservatives in the federal elections, Germany is moving in big steps towards a centrist coalition government consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD. There are at least three reasons for this course of action: the "energy turnaround", the renegotiation of fiscal federalism and banking policy, all call for a tight coordination between the federal level and the 16 states, nine of which are governed by SPD-led coalitions. Up-coming decisions in euro area management would benefit from a solid majority in the parliament, too. The CDU/CSU will have to provide substantial concessions to the SPD to make it happen. We expect this to happen. [more]
March 1, 2013
Region:
6
There is much to suggest that the economy returned to a growth path – albeit only a modest one – in the first quarter after a 0.6% contraction of real GDP in the closing quarter of 2012. New order intake and industrial output had already begun to pick up in December, so there was a growth overhang in production from the outset in Q1. Besides, business sentiment had already started to brighten four months ago. [more]
2.1.8