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Germany Monitor

In the "Germany Monitor" series we address political and structural issues which have great significance for Germany. These include commentaries on elections and political decisions, as well as technology and industry issues, and macro-economic topics which go beyond the business cycle matters addressed in "Focus Germany".

2 Documents
February 18, 2014
1
Substantial changes in global economic weights over the past decades, in particular the rise of China and India, combined with major shifts on the energy supply side – the US shale revolution – have increasingly shifted the Gulf countries’ economic focus towards the Asian continent. Asia is now the GCC’s most important trade partner, both in terms of its hydrocarbon exports as well as imports of machinery, manufactured goods and food. The growing trade ties have also been accompanied by intensified bilateral investment relations. The observed shift promises to give the GCC countries better access to rapidly growing Asian retail markets, not only in energy but also other sectors such as telecommunications and Islamic finance. This should help the GCC in its ambition to diversify its economies. Migrant workers from Asia contribute significantly to economic prosperity and development in the Gulf monarchies, although the socio-economic implications stemming from the rapidly growing expatriate communities in the region will pose some challenges. [more]
January 25, 2013
2
In this study, we analyse some of the political and economic consequences of the Arab Spring and assess opportunities and challenges for the affected countries. Political instability has taken a toll on the region’s economies. There has been a sharp slowdown in economic activity, deteriorating external and fiscal accounts and decreasing FX reserves. The long-term challenges for the region remain as pressing as ever: high unemployment (especially among the youth), inefficient subsidy regimes and low trade diversification, among others. Expectations for rapid improvement after the Arab Spring will be disappointed, but there is a chance that less oppressive governments will be more responsive to their peoples’ demands and thus at least attempt to tackle those problems. [more]
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