The Looming Recession

Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Marion Laboure

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The global outlook is moving in a stagflationary direction. — Inflation momentum has continued to build, leading to central bank tightening that will slow growth across the key economies. — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted key commodity markets and supply chains [more]

The Race Against Time

December 6, 2023

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2023 will be remembered as the year that Artificial Intelligence went mainstream. We are on the brink of an AI revolution that will be one of the most profound developments in generations. It is set to supercharge productivity growth, which should rise to comfortably above 3% p.a. in the US by the end of the decade. [more]

A cloudy mountain top

October 12, 2023

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Recent months have seen a mounting case for a US soft landing as inflation has fallen without much stress in the labour market. Yet at the same time, the global economy is now being buffeted by several headwinds and the backdrop is fragile, with sovereign bond yields at multi-year highs across the world. [more]

The Future of Money

September 29, 2023

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Thematic Research

The past decade has challenged our understanding of money as payment alternatives and new forms of currency entered our everyday lives. Digital assets such as Bitcoin have captured the spotlight, but we believe it will be central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) that will prevail. And yet, even as the transition to digital payments continues, cash does not face extinction. [more]

The clock is ticking

June 15, 2023

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We have consistently argued over the last 2-3 years that the US is heading for its first genuine policy-led boom-bust cycle in at least four decades. The inflation we see was induced largely by expansive fiscal and monetary policy, and the aggressive rate hikes needed to tame that have now materialised. Avoiding a hard landing would be historically unprecedented. [more]

AI in action: where is the smart money going?

June 7, 2023

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Adrian Cox, Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Marion Laboure

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Podzept (Podcast series)

Artificial intelligence is an overnight success that has been many years in the making. But where is it going next? In our latest Podzept episode, Dr Marion Laboure, Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace and Adrian Cox, analyse the details of an extensive database of AI venture capital deals and patents to anticipate what innovations will soon be arriving on our doorsteps. [more]

AI in action: where is the smart money going?

May 25, 2023

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Thematic Research

Artificial intelligence is an overnight success that has been many years in the making. To properly anticipate what AI innovation is to come next, we went back to the source, looking at patents and venture capital deal activity that will translate into the everyday AI applications of the future. [more]

The Future of Payments: Series 4 - Part III. Bye-bye cash, hello digital payments

April 25, 2023

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Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Marion Laboure, Nejati Nooshin

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Digital

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Corporate Bank Research

We dig into how the world of payments is moving away from cash towards digital payments. This structural shift from cash to digital payments is expected to continue in 2023 with further evolution of digital IDs and digital wallets. Amid a macro slowdown, we expect financial solutions offered by non-financial firms, such as embedded financing, to play a major role in the further adoption of digital payments. [more]

AI & The Five Ws: Why, What, Who, When, Where?

April 11, 2023

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Adrian Cox, Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Marion Laboure

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Podzept (Podcast series)

Artificial intelligence is beginning to permeate our lives, but the technology and opportunities likely remain a mystery to many. In this podcast, Dr Marion Laboure, Adrian Cox and Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace look at today’s artificial intelligence landscape, its rapid growth and the new capabilities of ChatGPT and its competitors. [more]

The Future of Payments: Series 4 - Part I. Digital assets: The end of magical thinking?

February 27, 2023

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Digital

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Corporate Bank Research

In the first part of series 4 of our Future of Payments series, Marion Laboure and Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace take a look at how the end of a rare macroeconomic environment, featuring near-zero interest rates, stimulus packages, and excess liquidity, could clean the market of bad actors, much like the dot-com bubble did two decades ago. [more]

Q&A with Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace

February 21, 2023

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Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace

Q&A with

Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace is a Thematic Research Analyst. In our "Q&A with…" series she discusses the highlights from the most recent edition of The House View Snapshot – including its AI generated cover image. She also shares her favourite experience since joining the Deutsche Bank Graduate programme last year. [more]

The Taps Still Tightening

February 10, 2023

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After a succession of forecast downgrades, the global economy has turned a corner since the end of last year. For instance, natural gas prices in Europe have more than halved over the last couple of months, and we no longer expect an imminent Euro Area recession. In the meantime, China’s post-Covid reopening has proceeded faster than many thought possible, leading to similar upgrades in our forecasts. Even in the US, where we continue to call for a recession in H2, unemployment has reached a 53-year low. [more]

The Future of Work – Learning from Sport Part II. Better together

November 17, 2022

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