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Longer-term benefits of the Phase One deal

February 25, 2020

Longer-term benefits of the Phase One deal

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Linan Liu, Yi Xiong
Online PDF 149k
The Phase One trade agreement between the US and China is more than a trade war truce and USD200 bn of purchases. It covers a broad range of topics from intellectual property (IP) protection to opening up China's market. Our broad assessment is successful implementation of this trade deal could bring sizable long-term benefits to China and the world economy. [more]
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More documents contained in "Thematic Research"

150 (71-82)
    

COVID-19 and the Impact of US Jobs

May 13, 2020
Region:
International
Analyst:
Brett Ryan, Justin Weidner, Matthew Luzzetti
Thematic Research
71
After shrugging off a historic plunge in April employment, market participants will likely need to digest further record-setting monthly declines in core CPI inflation as well as April retail sales and industrial production. However, with financial markets seemingly numb to the bad data news, Fed Chair Powell's appearance on Wednesday may overshadow what is likely to be epic weakness in this week's economic data. [more]

Konzept # 18: Life after covid-19

May 13, 2020
Region:
International
Analyst:
Henry Allen, Jim Reid, Luke Templeman, Marion Laboure
Thematic Research
72
As our personal, business, social, and economic lives begin to change, this edition of Konzept examines 20 different ways in which the world will be different post covid-19. From working from home, to managing seismic industry change, and eventually paying for the astonishing stimulus measures, many difficult questions must be answered. And given the global health and economic backdrop remains highly uncertain, the way we frame the problems is just as important as the way we address them. [more]

Global Economic Update with Torsten Slok

March 24, 2020
Region:
International
Analyst:
Matthew Barnard, Torsten Slok
Thematic Research
78
The world economy has, to all intents and purposes, ground to a halt with widespread social distancing and lock-down measures resulting in the closure of restaurants, retail, travel, sporting events and many other business. The impact on local and global growth is unlike any other period in the past as governments come up with economic rescue packages underwritten by central bank easing. [more]

The Luxury goods market is evolving with a push towards sustainability

March 3, 2020
Region:
International
Analyst:
Francesca DiPasquantonio
Thematic Research
79
Growth in luxury has been primarily driven by brand heat and newness, however millennials and Gen Z are increasingly demanding more quality and sustainability. In a recent Deutsche Bank Research consumer survey on what criteria are important for luxury spending and how they have changed over time: sustainability saw the third largest increase to importance when purchasing luxury. [more]

COVID-19: How policy can buffer the virus shock

February 28, 2020
Region:
Europe
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Mark Wall
Thematic Research
81
In addition to absorbing a virus shock through the China export demand and supply chain channels, Europe now has to absorb a domestic outbreak. Voluntary steps to prevent the spread of the coronavirus (“social distancing”) as well as official containment measures are likely to disrupt economic activity. We expect disruption beyond northern Italy, an area which accounts for about 5% of euro area GDP. A temporary economic shock similar in scale to Hong Kong’s when SARS struck in 2003 would only need to occur in 10% of the euro area for area-wide GDP to stagnate in H1 and take the zone to the verge of technical recession. It is a highly fluid situation, but this might be a best case outcome. [more]

Argentina - A narrow path to „sustainability“

February 27, 2020
Region:
International
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Drausio Giacomelli, Felipe Labbe, Hongtao Jiang
Thematic Research
82
We revisit the debt situation in Argentina and update our assessment on debt sustainability by projecting both debt stocks and FX debt repayment capacity. Argentina’s debt problem originates from fiscal dominance and lack of nominal anchor. The problem will likely persist in the future unless Argentina implements structural reforms. Current macroeconomic conditions are significantly more challenging than in the early 2000s in terms of potential growth, inflation, and external conditions. [more]
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