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Mapping the worlds prices 2019

May 17, 2019

Mapping the world's prices 2019

Region:
International
Thematic Research
Analyst:
Craig Nicol, Jim Reid
Online PDF 1M
Related Podcast
This is the 8th annual Deutsche Bank survey of global prices and living standards from various countries and cities around the world. We’ve focussed the analysis on 50 cities relevant to global financial markets. [more]

163 Documents
    

The Future of Money

September 29, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Marion Laboure
Thematic Research
1
The past decade has challenged our understanding of money as payment alternatives and new forms of currency entered our everyday lives. Digital assets such as Bitcoin have captured the spotlight, but we believe it will be central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) that will prevail. And yet, even as the transition to digital payments continues, cash does not face extinction. [more]

The History (and Future) of Recessions

September 20, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
Galina Pozdnyakova, Henry Allen, Jim Reid
Thematic Research
2
The word “recession” has been one of the most widely used in markets over the last 12 months. In their annual Long-Term Asset Return Study, Jim Reid, Henry Allen and Galina Pozdnyakova focus on understanding what history tells us about the frequency, depth and duration of recessions, along with what causes them using cycle data stretching back to 1700. The team also takes a look at their impact on asset prices, and the likely shape of them going forward. [more]

Assets that haven't moved yet

September 12, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
Galina Pozdnyakova, Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga
Thematic Research
3
Intriguing Market Insights from Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga and Galina Pozdnyakova. Despite being closer to a Fed pause, many rate-sensitive assets are yet to recover. Investors are cautious, perhaps due to last year's rapid drops. But if history is any indicator, any post-pause rally could be swift.
In years like 2023, the latter part of the year tends to be good for equities. Hedge funds, trailing the S&P 500, may make moves to catch up.
In Europe, interdependencies with China are worth noting. Despite recent challenges, we remain optimistic about Chinese markets, with potential catalysts like improved corporate earnings and stimulus on the horizon.
A key concern remains with the lag effects of rate rises impacting the high-yield debt market. [more]

Is disinflation different this time around?

July 26, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
Matthew Luzzetti, Peter Hooper
Thematic Research
4
Over the past year, the view that a recession would be needed to enable the Fed to achieve its firm target of returning inflation to 2% has gone from long shot to consensus view to, essentially, a coin toss. In their recent US Economic Perspectives report, Deutsche Bank Research attempts to answer the question: Recession or soft landing: Is disinflation different this time? [more]

Can AI replace humans in thematic investing?

June 22, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
Ganchi Zhang
Thematic Research
5
Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing the way investments are made, including thematic investing. In a new report by the quantitative research team, they provide a comprehensive framework for using AI in active thematic investing. AI can not only identify the ever-changing market drivers but also help make informed investment decisions with diverse exposure. [more]

Precious Metals: The foundations of price formation

June 20, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
Michael Hsueh
Thematic Research
6
Precious metals and gold in particular have befuddled analytical attempts to explain and predict prices, perhaps because no single framework seems to work without fail over time. While some might throw up their hands and avoid precious metals altogether, our response is twofold – first, that there are tried and true basic principles that can be applied to explain precious metals performance over the economic cycle, and second, that deviations from frameworks are useful learning opportunities in and of themselves. [more]

World Outlook: The Waiting Game…

June 7, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
David Folkerts-Landau, Jim Reid
Thematic Research
8
Deutsche Bank Research has just released the latest World Outlook, featuring updated views on economics and markets. They have called this edition “The Waiting Game…” because they maintain their call for a US recession in Q4 as the lags from tighter monetary policy really start to hit. That weak outlook is evident elsewhere too, and their forecasts don’t expect any G7 country to grow by more than 0.8% in 2024. However, when it comes to the long term they are very enthusiastic about the prospects of AI changing the nature of our economies in the years ahead, which could offer some optimism after a very challenging start to the decade. [more]

Can AI save high-labour firms?

May 24, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
Luke Templeman, Olga Cotaga
Thematic Research
10
Companies with a large number of employees have a big problem. Quite simply, they fail to extract as much value from each staff member as do low-staff firms. Indeed, labour-intense firms tend to have a lower market cap, thinner margins, and lower growth rates.
AI may be the way forward. In this piece, we argue that AI will make workers more productive, particularly in high-staff firms. The reason is that the profitability of high-staff firms has the highest leverage to the performance of their labour force. AI will help upskill them and streamline repetitive and mundane tasks that are more prevalent in high-staff companies. [more]

Generative AI and ChatGPT 101

May 23, 2023
Region:
International
Analyst:
Adrian Cox
Thematic Research
11
Next week will mark six months since the launch of ChatGPT, the chatbot based on OpenAI’s GPT-3.5 large language model. There has been an extraordinary flurry of launches, hype and activity since then. Even in the past week, OpenAI, Google and Meta announced fresh products, OpenAI’s CEO testified in Congress, and the G7 called for “guardrails” on AI, among many other developments. [more]
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