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Increasing headwinds but fiscal surplus (still) rising

October 4, 2018
Region:
Weak currencies and economic difficulties in emerging markets dampen German exports. Over the past few months, the euro has appreciated against the currencies of many emerging markets which will likely curtail German exports to these countries in 2018 and 2019. In 2017, the ten largest German export markets among the emerging markets accounted for some 16% of total exports. According to our estimation model, German exports to this country group are set to increase by a nominal 3.5% to 4% in 2018 and 2019. This would be a noticeable loss of momentum compared with 2017 when exports increased by just over 7%. The country group’s share of total exports for the industrial sector is highest for traditional capital goods manufacturers, with mechanical engineering taking the lead. The ten emerging economies examined accounted for just over 22% of all exports in this sector in 2017. [more]

More documents contained in "Focus Germany"

75 (73-75)
January 28, 2013
Region:
73
We expect a recovery to set in approximately in spring this year on the back of a stabilising euro area and more buoyant emerging markets. Owing to the low starting point, however, annual average growth will probably come to no more than 1/4% in 2013. Nonetheless, the labour market is expected to remain relatively stable. With oil prices forecast to stabilise, consumer prices will probably rise less strongly this year. Public-sector budgets look set to deteriorate for cyclical reasons in 2013. However, with a deficit of only about 1/2% of GDP, Germany would still be in an excellent position by international standards. [more]
May 19, 2008
Region:
74
Female and male participation in most walks of life are unequal today, either due to lack of opportunity or by choice. Along which dimensions are changes likely in Germany by 2020? Looking forward, we need to find some answers, in order to make the right decisions. We therefore examine the interactions between women and future structural changes, such as population ageing, a growing project economy, increasing knowledge intensity and fast-spreading virtual connectedness. We develop a plausible future, for women, and shaped by women, and pinpoint implications for government and corporations. [more]
October 3, 2007
Region:
75
Germany faces historic challenges. The continuing structural shift towards a knowledge-based economy, fresh competition from Asia and other parts of the world, rapid ageing, tight fiscal constraints and global climate change are the most prominent examples. To develop future-proof strategies, politicians and businesses must take a look at the future interaction of these forces. With an innovative scenario analysis we therefore sketch the directions in which Germany could conceivably develop up to 2020. The most plausible of these future scenarios is the "Expedition Deutschland". [more]
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