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The long view in Emerging Markets – middle-income trap, demographics and economic growth

April 13, 2016
A number of factors, including the decline in commodity prices, sizeable corporate foreign-currency debt, a strengthening dollar and the prospect of higher US interest rates, are weighing on the economic and financial outlook in the emerging markets (EM). The relative lack of reform combined with a weakening of some of the structural factors that underpin growth has raised concern about the medium-term outlook in many, but not all EM. [more]

More documents contained in "Talking Point"

130 (51-62)
August 22, 2016
Region:
51
The debate about whether a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) helps or hinders the transmission mechanism of monetary policy continues to rage. The BIS and many others – including us* – long ago issued warnings about throwing open the monetary floodgates and the side effects of negative central-bank interest rates, and now Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, has also clearly rejected negative interest rates, despite using all the means at his disposal to prevent the UK economy from sliding into recession after the Brexit shock. The package of measures he launched in August significantly exceeded market expectations, but Carney has ruled out negative interest rates, referring to the adverse impact on the capital markets. [more]
August 18, 2016
Region:
52
The European banking industry has gone into reverse gear this year so far, following substantial progress in 2014 and 2015. Its revenues and profits have relapsed into contraction, and the potential for lower loan loss provisions to come to the rescue seems exhausted. Once more, cost cuts have not kept pace with the retreat on the income side. In a market environment that continues to be very challenging, banks may have to resort to even tougher measures to put themselves on a sustainable footing again. [more]
July 28, 2016
Region:
54
The issue of future EU-UK relations has many facets. Among those widely overlooked so far are the consequences for the coordination of social security systems. Will the EU’s social and labour law-related standards still apply in the UK after Brexit? Will British pensioners living in France or Spain still be allowed to reside there and to receive a full pension? What about EU citizens’ access to services from Britain’s National Health Service (NHS)? Will bankers who have migrated from London to Frankfurt still be eligible to receive the German child benefit for their children who stayed behind? [more]
July 21, 2016
Region:
Analyst:
55
The 2008/2009 economic and financial crisis caused the number of insolvency proceedings instituted to increase by 48% in 2009 alone. However, the number of insolvencies has been following a downward trend since then. As a result, fewer proceedings were instituted in 2015 than in 2008 across nearly all sectors of industry. The prospects for this trend continuing in 2016 are good. Over the past few years, the number of insolvencies in any given industry has been significantly influenced by the prevailing economic conditions in that industry and – related to this – the value of the euro against the currencies of major trading partners. [more]
July 6, 2016
Region:
56
Breathtaking. No other word really does justice to the profound changes unleashed by digitalisation and the accelerating pace at which new technologies are appearing. Of course, many of these technologies are still in their infancy and in some cases still have a rather visionary character, but they nevertheless hold unforeseen and lucrative potential. The race for digital technologies and successful monetisation strategies has been on for some time, especially among the large, well-known internet platforms. However, start-ups are increasingly throwing their hat into the ring and causing quite a stir among the business models of established companies. As a result, many innovation-stimulating digital technologies are gradually finding their way into traditional companies where they are evolving into a comparative competitive advantage (not only) for Germany as a business location. [more]
July 1, 2016
Region:
Analyst:
57
Following the UK referendum, Brexit will also leave traces on German industry. After all, 7.5% of all German exports went to the UK in 2015, making it Germany’s third most important export market after the United States and France. The automotive and pharmaceutical industries are likely to be hit the hardest by Brexit. This is because the UK accounts for 12.8% and 10.5%, respectively, of these two industries’ total exports. In addition, they both generally have an above-average export ratio. The UK referendum is likely to have an impact on individual companies’ investment decisions and German companies’ UK pricing structures in the short term. [more]
June 21, 2016
Region:
58
After two years of recovery, European banks suffered a setback in the first quarter of 2016. Capital market revenues were hit by concerns about global economic growth and banks’ own business models. Cost cuts and a further decline in loan loss provisions helped only somewhat to smooth the fall in profitability. Still, net income was about the same as in Q1 2014, and progress continued in other areas. [more]
June 14, 2016
Region:
Analyst:
59
Since the ECB’s announcement to include investment-grade corporate bonds in its QE programme (CSPP), corporate bond issuance has surged in the euro area. However, even though this is a boon for issuers, benefits for the real economy may be quite limited. The value added for SMEs is hard to see, and funds raised will most likely be used predominantly for refinancing of existing debt and for stock buybacks instead of new investments. Moreover, potential side effects of the corporate bond programme such as inefficiencies in the pricing of risks and deterioration in liquidity could increase the distortions in bond markets. [more]
May 27, 2016
Region:
Analyst:
60
Following a strong increase in manufacturing output in Q1 2016, we have raised our forecast for the entire year 2016 to 1% (previously, a marginal increase). Hardly anything has changed in our forecast of generally moderate performance in the manufacturing sector for 2016 as a whole. However, the strong start to the year requires upward adjustments to our forecasts, also at sector level. These are particularly noticeable in the automotive and plastics industries as well as among producers of building materials. [more]
May 2, 2016
Region:
61
In September 2015, the European Commission set out its action plan to establish a Capital Markets Union in order to push for stronger and more integrated capital markets in the EU to better complement bank finance. Creating deeper and more liquid stock markets is crucial in this respect, and also a precondition for European financial centres to regain their position in a global context. Indeed, the total number of stock exchanges operating independently in the EU is astonishingly high, especially in eastern and south-eastern European countries. In addition, market capitalisation is highly concentrated in only a handful of exchanges, and in smaller markets also tends to be lower relative to economic size. [more]
April 7, 2016
Region:
Analyst:
62
Last year, the proportion of diesel cars among new car registrations in the EU-15 dropped by 1.5 percentage points to just over 52%. This was the fourth decline in a row. The fall in the diesel share was especially pronounced in France, where the government wants to reduce the tax advantage for diesel over petrol. By contrast, in Germany the diesel share increased slightly last year, due among other things to the large number of commercial car registrations. We expect a further decline in the diesel share in the European car market over the next few years. The higher costs for diesel technology play a role here. However, for high-mileage drivers in particular, the lower consumption and long range of diesel cars as well as lower fuel prices remain convincing sales arguments. Therefore, provided governments do not introduce any serious surcharges for diesel cars, the diesel share of the European car market is unlikely to crash. [more]
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