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German manufacturing output: a good first quarter, but no stable uptrend

May 27, 2016
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Following a strong increase in manufacturing output in Q1 2016, we have raised our forecast for the entire year 2016 to 1% (previously, a marginal increase). Hardly anything has changed in our forecast of generally moderate performance in the manufacturing sector for 2016 as a whole. However, the strong start to the year requires upward adjustments to our forecasts, also at sector level. These are particularly noticeable in the automotive and plastics industries as well as among producers of building materials. [more]

More documents about "Sectors and resources"

154 (85-96)
July 31, 2015
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85
The total passenger volume at German regional airports decreased steadily from 2010 to 2014. In a longer-term comparison, the volume in 2014 was barely 5% higher than in 2005. During the same period, the larger German airports experienced growth of 25.6%. The range of flights available at most regional airports remains small. Therefore, the anticipated positive effects on the local economy are small, as are the transport benefits. With few exceptions, regional airports have been in the red for about the past ten years. In 2013, for example, none of the airports discussed in this paper was able to show a profit. Looking ahead, we remain sceptical with regard to expansion plans at regional airports. It would still be preferable if the federal government were the competent authority on the fundamental question of whether and where airport capacities should be expanded. [more]
July 3, 2015
Analyst:
86
In 2014 the Chinese spent nearly USD 170 bn on tourism services abroad. This makes them runaway leaders in the spending statistics ahead of tourists from the US (USD 112 bn) and Germany (USD 92 bn). The growth rate recorded by China over recent years has been particularly impressive: between 2000 and 2014 the Chinese increased their international tourism spending by an average of 20% per year. [more]
June 26, 2015
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87
The average age of cars on German roads hit a new record high of nine years at the beginning of 2015. The primary reason for this is the improved quality of vehicles. Although the diesel share of new car registrations has averaged well over 40% in recent years, diesel only constituted 31% of the cars on German roads at last count. The durability of cars is causing the mix of cars in service to change only slowly. The diesel car example suggests that it may take many years before cars powered by alternative technologies constitute a major share of all the cars registered in Germany. The vision of a future with largely climate-neutral or locally emission-free vehicles on German roads by 2050 is virtually unattainable as things currently stand. [more]
June 18, 2015
Analyst:
89
Industry 4.0 (also known as integrated industry, industrial internet) is currently the subject of intense debate. This megatrend sets out to change the way goods and services are created and distributed, reshaping the industrial landscape on a national and global scale. China intends to play a leading role in this digital evolution. A wide range of policies have been initiated and sizeable progress in various areas has been made. The country is determined to seize the outstanding opportunity at hand, as the recently unveiled “Made in China 2025” plan underlines. China still has a long road ahead. However, with its new plan it combines a long-term vision with concrete actions in the proclaimed “Year of Innovation”. [more]
May 28, 2015
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Analyst:
90
The German government is sticking to its target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40% from the 1990 level by 2020. As it currently seems doubtful that the target will be achieved, Minister of Economics Sigmar Gabriel suggests introducing an additional climate contribution for older electricity power plants with particularly high CO2-emissions. Especially older lignite-based power plants would be affected by such a measure. And this at a time when many power plants are under pressure anyway due to changes in the investment strategies of a large Scandinavian investor. [more]
May 27, 2015
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91
The period up to 2025 offers the German steel industry good prospects for a stable and economically sound future. However, this requires policymakers to take a reasonable approach to the further development of the regulatory framework for steel producers and their customer industries in Germany just as it requires only a modest level of expansion in steel capacity at global level. There are also other conceivable scenarios with greater risks, challenges and consequences for the German steel industry and its employees – and these alternatives are in no way completely improbable. [more]
May 26, 2015
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92
At sectoral level, the positive effects of the euro's current weakness are clearly outweighing its drawbacks. Capital equipment manufacturers are benefiting the most from the increasing price competitiveness offered by Germany as a business location. In 2014, the automotive industry generated 45.5% of its total revenue from non-EMU countries, while the proportion for the mechanical engineering sector was almost 43%. Parts of the electrical engineering, chemicals and pharmaceutical industries are also especially benefiting from the recent devaluation in the euro. [more]
May 11, 2015
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93
Despite only marginally higher output in Germany's manufacturing sector in Q1 2015 we are sticking with our full-year production forecast (+1.5% in real terms). The current softness of the euro benefits Germany's export sectors. Nonetheless, companies appear much more upbeat in their assessment of the current situation than in their expectations for the coming months. This is likely due, for example, to continuing geopolitical risks and poorer economic policy conditions in Germany. So it is clear that in the business world not everything is sweetness and light. [more]
April 9, 2015
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94
Biotechnology is one of the key technologies for securing Germany's position as a manufacturing location. While biotechnology research in Germany is being conducted at the leading edge and grants make it easier to set up a biotech firm, young companies often encounter funding bottlenecks when the start-up financing phase comes to an end. One indicator of how grave the funding situation is in Germany is that the average amount of venture capital available to a company is around four times as high in the US as it is in Germany. This funding gap could jeopardise Germany's high-tech strategy objective of beefing up key technologies in the domestic market. [more]
March 30, 2015
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95
The combination of the structural global trade slowdown, increased localization of production, demographic changes in Germany, the impact of recent economic policy decisions and further toughening of international competition are likely to be a considerable challenge for German exporters over the medium term. Thus, the domestic economy will play a bigger role again. Government policies can help ease the transition. German exporters could become even more globally active firms over the medium term. The specific reactions will vary by sector, though. The earnings generated by these firms around the globe are likely to be a blessing for an aging and more domestically driven economy in the decades ahead. [more]
March 30, 2015
Region:
96
Since around 2009, the German healthcare system has been characterised by weak investment. One reason is that public subsidies for the sector have been reduced. This development harbours risks, for only a regular renewal of medical appliances and equipment is likely to ensure the high quality of treatment in Germany in the long term. By contrast, lower investments in the building stock would primarily mean a reduction in the current hospital overcapacities. [more]
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