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Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, EU politics, etc.
Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, EU politics, etc.) and major risks in 2019. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes. [more]
More documents contained in "The House View - Snapshot"
As markets enter into the summer lull, it is useful to take a step back. The global economy is in better shape than it has been in several years. This has allowed other central banks to follow the Fed and gradually start their exit journey, a process that is a historic challenge given the unprecedented level of monetary accommodation. But with inflation still below target, a key part of the normalisation puzzle is still missing. [more]
Global investors have recently been forced to sift through mixed signals from macro data and markets. Chief among these discordant messages is the apparent dichotomy between softer inflation, lower yields and flatter curves, and falling oil prices on the one hand, and still solid global growth and firm risk sentiment on the other hand. [more]
Politics remain a key focus for markets, but the latest developments in Europe are positive. In France, the first round of the presidential election ruled out the least market-friendly outcome, and although eurosceptic Marine Le Pen is in the run-off as expected, polls suggest reformist Macron should win. The snap election called in Britain for June is a material positive game-changer for Brexit negotiations. [more]