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German elections: Kitchen table polling stations are open

August 26, 2021
Region:
Polls are in flux. The SPD – pulled up by popular frontrunner FM Scholz – has exploited the conservatives’ ongoing weakness and turned a seemingly hopeless endeavour into a neck-and-neck race. In parallel, the Greens are stumbling. In the midst of this volatile political atmosphere, postal voting has started. As most postal voters intend to cast their vote quickly, there is little time left for the faltering conservatives and Greens to regain voters’ support. [more]

More documents about "Economic and european policy"

303 Documents
September 8, 2021
Region:
1
The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, ambitious climate policies, persistently negative interest rates, and large-scale security purchases by the ECB are increasingly raising the issue of a fair distribution. Policymakers tend to focus on the symptoms in order to appease their voters – and in doing so, they often neglect the root causes. [more]
September 6, 2021
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2
With less than three weeks to go until the German federal election, we put together a succinct presentation to address the following questions:

#1: Is the SPD boom yet another spike in voter preferences – that is going to mean-revert?
#2: How do policy platforms compare and where are the parties’ red lines?
#3: Which coalition option is most likely to materialize?
#4: Is a leftish red-red-green coalition a possibility at all?
#5: Are there any procedural stumbling blocks? How long might the Merkel government act as a caretaker government?
#6: What could fiscal, climate, distribution, and housing policies look like in a new three-way coalition?
#7: What is the likely impact on Germany’s potential growth?

In addition to summarizing our election outlook, we include snapshots of recently published research on how key policy areas like climate, energy, EU, distribution, and fiscal policy might be shaped by the next government. [more]
August 23, 2021
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3
While the Conservatives’ position in the polls seems to be in free fall for now, the FDP has regained standing with the voters just in time for the federal election in September. According to current polls, only three-way party coalitions have a majority, hence, the Liberals could end up as the new kingmakers, clearly favouring a coalition with the Conservatives and the Greens (Jamaica) over a traffic-light coalition with the SPD and the Greens. But there are still five weeks to go and the election race is as open as ever. [more]
August 19, 2021
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4
For the German federal elections in September, about 60m voters are called to cast their ballot. Despite more than half of voters being 50 years and above, it would still be too far-fetched to say that Germany has become a so-called gerontocracy, where the interests of the older dominate the political process. Moreover, the pandemic could curb participation among all age groups. [more]
July 12, 2021
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5
All eyes are on the next government’s EU fiscal stance. The Greens are advocating looser debt rules and turning the NGEU into a permanent fiscal capacity. However, in the two most plausible coalition scenarios, the Greens have to find common ground with either the Conservatives (black-green coalition) or the Liberals (traffic light coalition). Both call for re-instating the debt rules in the post-pandemic world and emphasize the one-off nature of the NGEU. Thus, we do not expect any significant shift of Germany’s EU fiscal policy course. The odds of an election surprise contributing to a stronger EUR remain low. The autumn debate about the reform of the SGP will be the first proof of this new/old fiscal stance. Beyond the immediate focus of financial markets, we also sketch which impulses we expect from the next German government in the areas of EU climate, trade, foreign policies and institutional reform. With respect to putting the Green Deal to work, we expect Germany to role-model green transformation at measured pace. The German response to this week’s “Fit for 55” legislative proposals is likely to be mixed. [more]
July 1, 2021
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Analyst:
6
The spread of the delta variant will divert tourist flows in the 2021 summer season when individual holiday countries – such as Portugal recently – are classified as areas of variants of concern. However, delta is also likely to become dominant in Germany and other European countries in the near future. The question therefore arises as to how long the classification of countries with a high share of delta as areas of variants of concern can be justified. Ultimately, the classification into risk area and high incidence area might again be more reasonable. If a protection concept is lacking at schools after the summer vacations and delta leads to disruptions in school operations, this could influence the voting decisions of many people. [more]
June 25, 2021
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Analyst:
7
Climate change is one of the most important global challenges of the century. The issue essentially involves developing energy sources that are as efficient, cost-effective and low-carbon as possible. These should enable climate-friendly growth while also being politically acceptable. The transformation will entail significant limitations in terms of freedom of choice, and politics therefore needs to address social tensions. [more]
June 21, 2021
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8
At last, the Conservatives revealed their 140-page election manifesto earlier this afternoon. The manifesto is centered on the key themes of stability and, as Laschet put it, “the triad of climate change, economic strength and social security” in a modernised state. The Conservatives (faithful to their name) thereby differentiate themselves from the Greens’ focus on faster change and transformation. We provide a summary of the key messages regarding EU, fiscal and climate policies in our note. [more]
June 14, 2021
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9
For the Greens, the goal of leading the next government seems to have become harder to reach over the last couple of weeks as polls suggest a certain disenchantment of the electorate with the party and its frontrunner. We do not expect the just approved election manifesto (more left than centre) to provide them with enough momentum to switch back into offensive mode in the election campaign. Still, the Greens can still regain momentum over the next few months, for example due to a hot summer, the resurgence of climate protests and a public perception that change is a precondition to modernization. [more]
June 14, 2021
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10
What is corporate Germany’s view on key election topics? A conservative-green government would be a novelty in German coalition history. Ahead of this critical political and economic juncture a lot is at stake for German corporates (e.g. energy prices in the context of climate policies, exit from state support, active industrial policy). Our proprietary survey offers unique insights into what 200 German companies are thinking. [more]
June 10, 2021
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11
Q2 GDP should be o.k., despite April’s little stumble. Strong external demand and depleted finished goods inventories suggest a strong bounce back once current supply constraints ease. Consumers’ economic outlook and income expectations are improving. Together with an expected normalization of the savings rate that should provide a strong underpinning for consumption growth. We stick to our Q2 GDP forecast of close to 2% qoq and 4% for the whole year. The rate of inflation has been rising sharply since the start of 2021. With price dynamics continuing to outstrip expectations and given the prospect of stronger economic recovery in the summer, we now expect the annual average CPI inflation rate to rise to 2.8% in 2021, monthly numbers could even touch 4%. [more]
June 2, 2021
Region:
12
Next Sunday’s regional election in the small eastern German state Saxony-Anhalt is the last electoral test in the run-up to the federal election in September. Polls suggest that the CDU will remain the strongest political force, despite being challenged by the right-wing AfD. Even a narrow win would be a positive for the CDU’s federal campaign. Whereas an AfD victory would be a (non-lethal) blow for Laschet’s election campaign. The federal election campaign is just heating up. The electorate seems a little disenchanted with Greens and their chancellor candidate, allowing the Conservatives to regain the lead in the neck-and-neck race in the polls. Still, the two parties are polling too close to speak of a turning point (yet). [more]
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