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Supported global growth

May 22, 2018
After a year of strong and highly synchronised global growth, momentum undeniably slowed this year. This has raised concern over the growth cycle, and the potential impact on risk assets. However, our global macro view remains positive and we still forecast the global economy to grow robustly this year. We have downgraded our 2018 forecast for the eurozone, which is balanced by an upgrade to our China forecast. In the US, our outlook is unchanged as fiscal policy begins trickling through the economy and the Federal Reserve continues to withdraw accommodation. [more]

More documents contained in "The House View - Snapshot"

33 Documents
September 9, 2021
1
The global economy performed strongly over the summer, but the delta variant has led to increasingly frequent data misses versus expectations. This has seen us downgrade our near-term US growth outlook just as high inflation readings have shifted attention to when central banks will taper asset purchases. These inflation fears initially centred on the US, but the Euro Area now has its highest inflation in almost a decade as well. For now investors are still convinced, as is priced in, that inflation will be a temporary phenomenon that will mostly self-correct.  [more]
November 25, 2020
5
The global economic outlook has improved since September thanks to the positive vaccine news, and we now see global GDP returning to its pre-virus levels in Q2 2021. Significant risks around this forecast remain both to the downside (if the virus were to spread more severely this winter or a vaccine rollout were delayed) and the upside (if a vaccine rollout is quicker than anticipated). [more]
September 24, 2020
6
Over the summer months, the outlook for the global economy and financial markets has brightened. As such, we now see the global economy contracting by a smaller -3.9% this year, with global activity returning to its pre-virus level by the second half of next year, albeit with the major developed countries likely to take several more quarters to reach the same point. [more]
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