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Outlook 2021 – Contingent on the COVID cycle

December 10, 2020
Region:
The COVID cycle and vaccination progress will drive the economy in 2021. We expect that infection rates will not come down decisively before Q2. By summer vaccination numbers should reach critical mass. A strong recovery starting in Q2 should yield an annual GDP increase of 4.5% after a 5.5% drop in 2020. All attention on the super election year 2021: Germany is facing federal elections and multiple state elections. Our baseline scenario is a conservative-green government, but coalition talks will significantly test the willingness to compromise on both sides. (Also in this issue: global trade and exports, private consumption, labour market, equipment and other investment, the German housing market, public finances, inflation, German industry's corona losses) [more]

More documents from Marc Schattenberg

40 (37-40)
September 6, 2017
Region:
37
Germany booming but wage-inflation still missing. We have lifted our 2017 GDP forecast from 1.6% to 1.9%. 2018 we revised only marginally up (from 1.7% to 1.8%) as we expect euro-induced export headwinds to counteract domestic strength. In H1 the economy expanded with an annualized rate of 2.6%. With EUR appreciation feeding through only gradually and capex picking up, GDP growth should slow only marginally in H2. 2018 kicks off with wage negotiation in key sectors. The strong labour market suggests wage settlements north of 3%, but the (classic) Phillips curve nexus is only weak and other factors could weigh. (Also included in this issue: German wage round in 2018, industry output forecast, The view from Berlin) [more]
August 8, 2017
Region:
38
Forecast for German Q2 GDP lifted to 0.8%. Strong private consumption boosts retail sales. Germany’s fiscal outlook: Goldilocks will not last forever. The view from Berlin: Asylum policy & refugee issues back on stage. [more]
July 3, 2017
Region:
39
The developed industrial countries have experienced a steady decline in trend growth since the mid-70s – and Germany is no exception. The robust cyclical upswing is veiling this creeping erosion of growth. The demographic developments will considerably weigh on trend growth in the medium and the longer term. They will dampen labour supply, capital formation and total factor productivity. By 2025, trend growth looks set to halve again, to only ¾%. The electoral programmes of the established parties incorporate different positions on this key issue, as is to be expected. [more]
May 19, 2006
Region:
40
In the coming decades, the demographic changes looming ahead will hit Germany with an impact never felt before. This applies not only to the pension system. It holds equally for the labour market, and will entail repercussions for wages and interest rates and thus growth potential and international capital flows. DB Research has analysed the complex interplay of these factors by using an overlapping generations (OLG) model. [more]
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