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In the current debate about the future of the EU, politicians as well as the media are warning of a tendency by member states to shift their focus back to their own national interests and of a subsequent loss of significance of the EU.
In the current debate about the future of the EU, politicians as well as the media are warning of a tendency by member states to shift their focus back to their own national interests and of a subsequent loss of significance of the EU. Are policymakers reacting to actual changes in the attitudes of EU citizens or is there an underlying perception issue here? [more]
Dependency ratio bottomed out in most advanced and most of the larger emerging economies sometime during the past 10-20 years. The dependency ratio is the ratio of people younger than 15 or older than 64 (so-called dependents) to those aged 15-64 (working-age population). Even China’s dependency ratio hit its sweet spot in 2010 and will rise rapidly over the coming decades. [more]
It is the classical dilemma of any currency union that a single monetary policy cannot possibly be appropriate for everybody if members are at very different stages of the business cycle. To get a feel for the scale of monetary (mis-)alignment, we calculate central bank rates as implied by a modified Taylor rule. [more]
After suffering from two deep economic downturns following the financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis, the economies of the peripheral countries in Europe eventually stabilised in 2014 or even started growing again. The general outlook for this year is better still. [more]
In 2014 the Chinese spent nearly USD 170 bn on tourism services abroad. This makes them runaway leaders in the spending statistics ahead of tourists from the US (USD 112 bn) and Germany (USD 92 bn). The growth rate recorded by China over recent years has been particularly impressive: between 2000 and 2014 the Chinese increased their international tourism spending by an average of 20% per year. [more]
2015New passenger car registrations in the EU-15 rose year on year for the 21st consecutive month in May 2015. True, at 0.8% yoy, growth is relatively low. However, this is due to the fact that the number of potential sales days was lower in some countries in May 2015 than in May 2014. [more]
In Europe, Switzerland and Germany have long trailed at the bottom of the league in terms of residential ownership, despite increases versus the 1990s. The reasons for this are complex: both countries have a relatively well developed rental market – to some extent the reason for and the consequence of the lower owner share. [more]
China has yet again set new records in 2014. It became the largest economy by purchasing power parity and the number one recipient of FDI inflows – thanks mostly to slowing foreign investment to the US. For the EU, China became the second most important export market with a share of 9.7%, trailing only the US (18.3%). [more]
Germany broke its export record again in 2014. The total value of goods exports rose by 3.7% to over EUR 1.1 trillion. Out of the major sectors the automotive industry reported the highest export growth in 2014 (+6.5%), followed by pharmaceuticals (+6%) and electrical engineering (+3.6%). [more]
Since the height of the financial crisis at the end of 2008, the use of different debt finance instruments by companies in the euro area has been diverging remarkably: whereas the outstanding volume of traditional bank loans has fallen by about EUR 360 bn on aggregate (-7.4%), net issuance of corporate bonds (i.e. long-term debt securities) has amounted to almost exactly the same cumulative (but positive) figure over the same period of time (a rise by 63%). [more]
Over the past ten years banks in Germany attracted over EUR 900 bn in new deposits from German households and businesses. This increased the market volume by nearly 50% vis-à-vis 2002. Today, public-sector banks hold 37% of total deposits, commercial banks one-third and cooperative banks roughly 20%. [more]
For the first time in at least a decade, all major revenue components at the 20 largest European banks declined simultaneously. Apart from trading income (-24%), the decrease was modest (interest income -0.5%, fees & commissions -1%) yet the looming challenge for banks’ business models has finally become crystal clear: there is no obvious driver for future growth. [more]
Last year, banks provided new syndicated loans of a gross global total of USD 1.6 tr, a drop by 41% yoy, following a similar decline in 2008 already. New lending thus reached a 10-year low, despite having doubled between 2003 and 2007... [more]