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GCC rules Berlin rent cap unconstitutional. Implications and assessment

April 15, 2021
Region:
The rent cap in Berlin was clearly the main topic in the German housing market pre-COVID. Across German cities rent growth decelerated with the extensive media coverage of the Berlin rent cap. Rental growth could pick up again in several cities and regions, as many initiatives which copied the Berlin rent cap might lose momentum. [more]

More documents about "Real estate"

46 (37-46)
June 1, 2015
Region:
37
The Q1 GDP details provide some comfort relative to the disappointing 0.3% qoq headline number. Final domestic demand was up 0.8% qoq while net-exports as well as inventories both provided a drag. Thus, our 2015 story of GDP growth driven by strong domestic demand remains intact. Despite this, we lower our 2015 GDP forecast from 2.0% to 1.6%. This is primarily due to the weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP growth that provides a lower starting base for 2015. However, we still expect quarterly growth rates to average a healthy 0.4% qoq in 2015. Further topics in this issue: Construction investment: Sharp increase expected, but focus on downside risks, The view from Berlin. German politics: Quarrel among friends and families. [more]
May 28, 2015
Region:
38
Politicians should focus on an expansion of building activity in the major cities and conurbations in order to reduce the upside pressure on house prices. In the past few months there have been indications of easing activity in the construction sector. If this trend materialises, the pressure on house prices will intensify further. One possible cause of this development is capacity restrictions, and a lack of suitable skilled labour in the finishing trades in particular. An immigration law that specifically focuses on bottlenecks in the labour market could help to bring about some relief. If it becomes obvious over the next few months that construction growth is going to remain sluggish long term, rent control should not be implemented in the regions. [more]
April 20, 2015
39
In Europe, Switzerland and Germany have long trailed at the bottom of the league in terms of residential ownership, despite increases versus the 1990s. The reasons for this are complex: both countries have a relatively well developed rental market – to some extent the reason for and the consequence of the lower owner share. [more]
November 5, 2014
Region:
40
We have cut our German GDP growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.3% for 2014 and further from 1.5% to 0.8% for 2015. We do not see Germany falling into a technical recession in Q3. But the 6 month slump of the ifo index has increased the risk that we might see a negative GDP print in Q4 2014 or Q1 2015. The positive effect of weaker oil prices will be offset by wage growth slowing from 3% plus this year towards 2% in 2015, as export-orientated sectors will respond to weaker external demand. Further topics in this issue: German industry: Temporary slowdown; German construction: Robust investment, but price momentum slowing; Inheritance tax: Constitutional Court ruling likely to weigh harder on business heirs; 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall: "Blooming landscapes" only in part. [more]
September 2, 2014
Region:
41
German GDP only 1 ½% in 2014, considerable risks for 2015. We have scaled back our GDP forecast for 2014 from 1.8% to 1 ½%, as we now expect weaker growth in H2. This also reduces our forecast for 2015 from 2.0% to 1.8%. The risks that this still constitutes an overly optimistic forecast have increased significantly. The German investment cycle will likely be more subdued than expected due to the ongoing weakness of world trade and increasing geopolitical strains. Even the hitherto still robust private consumption is emitting its first warning signs. [more]
January 27, 2014
Region:
42
We see economic growth in the order of 1.5% this year. Continuously strong private consumption and a rise in investment in machinery and equipment for the first time in two years are expected to lay the foundation for this solid performance. Moreover, we expect net exports to rise slightly as well in light of a global economic recovery. The labour market will remain a fundamental pillar of domestic demand also in 2014. With oil prices still relatively stable and tame domestic price developments, we expect the rate of inflation to come in at roughly the pre-year level of 1.5% on average in 2014. After a nearly balanced public-sector budget in 2013 a slight surplus seems to be in store for 2014, and public debt will likely fall in the direction of 76% of GDP, down from 81% at the end of 2012. [more]
October 31, 2013
Region:
43
Recently, the labour market has been marked by rising unemployment alongside a sustained increase in overall employment. The surprisingly strong increase in unemployment in September was reported by some newspapers as a "stalling German jobs miracle". The labour market upswing is still intact. Leading indicators suggest that the increase in employment is likely to accelerate again towards year-end. We expect the number of persons in employment to rise by 230,000 to a record high of 42.3 million in 2014.
In October the IAB released a new leading indicator for the short-term development of the labour market. In contrast to other leading indicators of the labour market the IAB index aims to forecast the change in the number of unemployed instead of the number of employed. The new index is a good predictor of the monthly changes in the number of unemployed, however, from a growth perspective employment is the more important indicator.
The increase in German house prices since 2008 has triggered concerns about the beginning of a housing boom. Our analysis of OECD house price cycles reveals that the current German upswing has been moderate so far compared to past German upswings and is one of the least pronounced among the cycles in OECD countries. We expect that real house prices continue to increase in Germany in the coming years, but that the formation of a bubble is rather unlikely thanks to no sign of excess in other relevant factors (e.g. labour market and credit growth). [more]
July 1, 2013
Region:
44
The findings of the latest Pew Research Center survey paint an impressive picture of the economic divergences within the euro area. The share of respondents in Germany assessing the current situation as “good”, for instance, has risen from 63% in 2007 to 75% currently, while this share has slumped heavily in all other European countries included in the survey.
German companies have made particular use of the opening up of eastern Europe and the emerging markets to establish global production chains and thereby strengthen their competitive position. Policymakers should therefore do their utmost to reduce the impediments to the international division of labour.
Has the east German housing market turned the corner? We find positive price-income relations in growing towns and – somewhat surprisingly – a negative relationship in shrinking towns. Our forecasts indicate a further differentiation among towns in east Germany in the years ahead. The following economic reasons may explain the finding: higher cost per capita of infrastructure in growing towns, path dependency of building costs and domestic migration. [more]
April 30, 2013
Region:
45
Over the past few days sentiment has brightened considerably in Germany, and there are even signs of euphoria in some places – Munich and Dortmund in particular. But unlike Germany's two Champions League semi-finalists the economic releases of late have been a sobering disappointment following the encouraging data at the start of the year. For this reason we have slightly lifted our forecast for German Q1 GDP growth from 0.1% qoq to 0.3%. At the same time, though, we cut our expectations for Q2 from 0.4% to 0.2%. On balance this leaves the annual average unchanged at 0.3%. [more]
January 28, 2013
Region:
46
We expect a recovery to set in approximately in spring this year on the back of a stabilising euro area and more buoyant emerging markets. Owing to the low starting point, however, annual average growth will probably come to no more than 1/4% in 2013. Nonetheless, the labour market is expected to remain relatively stable. With oil prices forecast to stabilise, consumer prices will probably rise less strongly this year. Public-sector budgets look set to deteriorate for cyclical reasons in 2013. However, with a deficit of only about 1/2% of GDP, Germany would still be in an excellent position by international standards. [more]
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