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What the history of populism can teach us today

February 4, 2019
Jim Reid, Global Head of Fundamental Credit Strategy and Thematic Research, explores how unique events, waves of populism and social unrest have often occurred through history. As far back as the French Revolution, such episodes were regularly associated with economic crisis, concerns over national identity, and fundamental dissatisfaction at the governing class. [more]

More documents from Luke Templeman

62 (49-60)
October 4, 2018
53
Should investors care that Samsung’s ‘scope one and two’ carbon emissions are 150 times higher than those of Apple even though the companies have similar revenue? Caroline Cook, Equity Analyst, says - no. Yet too many ESG investors still incorrectly compare ‘scope one and two’ data purely because it is the most widely disclosed. That is a mistake. [more]
October 4, 2018
Topic:
55
Investors have long attempted to incorporate ESG information into their stockpicking decisions, however, ESG funds have underperformed the market. This issue shows how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are finally giving investors the upper hand. Big data catches out ‘greenwashing’ and provides forward-looking market signals that outperform the market. This is a boon for investors who want to determine how ESG issues affect the fair value of stocks. [more]
June 6, 2018
56
About 250 years on from the first industrial revolution, we appear to be on the brink of a new age of automation, one dominated by complex robots and artificial intelligence. In this issue, we examine the impact of the next generation of automation on workers, industry, and society at large. Evidence from history, economics, and our industry analysts suggest that robots are more likely to complement us than replace us. [more]
March 1, 2018
60
In the fourth part of our series on the impact of rising yields, we discuss the rising incidence of zombie firms in recent years. Bottom-up data of some 3,000 companies in the FTSE All World index show that the percentage of zombie firms has more than tripled to 2.0% of firms in 2016 from 0.6% in 1996. Such firms are defined as those with an interest coverage ratio under 1x for 2 consecutive years and a price to sales ratio under 3x. That matters because zombie firms are linked to fading business dynamism and because years of low interest rates should have led to fewer such firms, not more. There are early signs we are at a turning point, however. The numbers for 2017, with two-thirds of firms reporting, suggest that zombie firm incidence declined sharply last year. If this proves to be a real trend, it may give central banks confidence that continuing to raise rates and pull away from unconventional monetary policy will have some advantages. [more]
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