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13 Tipping points in 2018

January 15, 2018
Against expectations, economies and markets powered ahead in 2017. Many predict more records to be broken in 2018. Yet, in many sectors, things are more complicated and 2018 may be the year of tipping points that augur unexpected change – both positive and negative. In this issue, we probe these tipping points and analyse the effects on economies and industries that investors may have ignored. [more]

More documents from Luke Templeman

64 (61-64)
March 1, 2018
63
In the fourth part of our series on the impact of rising yields, we discuss the rising incidence of zombie firms in recent years. Bottom-up data of some 3,000 companies in the FTSE All World index show that the percentage of zombie firms has more than tripled to 2.0% of firms in 2016 from 0.6% in 1996. Such firms are defined as those with an interest coverage ratio under 1x for 2 consecutive years and a price to sales ratio under 3x. That matters because zombie firms are linked to fading business dynamism and because years of low interest rates should have led to fewer such firms, not more. There are early signs we are at a turning point, however. The numbers for 2017, with two-thirds of firms reporting, suggest that zombie firm incidence declined sharply last year. If this proves to be a real trend, it may give central banks confidence that continuing to raise rates and pull away from unconventional monetary policy will have some advantages. [more]
October 2, 2017
64
Welcome to the eleventh edition of Konzept, Deutsche Bank’s flagship research magazine, which coincides with memories of the first stirrings of the financial crisis entering their eleventh year. This issue is published as the Federal Reserve starts rolling back quantitative easing, symbolising the post-crisis era giving way to the post-QE world.
The withdrawal of QE, however, causes anxiety among investors. After all, central bank balance sheets and asset prices have climbed hand-in-hand since the crisis. Does the planned descent of the former necessarily lead to the latter following suit? All three features in this Konzept are devoted to testing this hypothesis. [more]
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