1. Research
  2. Products & Topics
  3. Topics
  4. Sectors and resources

Industrials - constructive or destructive in 2022?

January 25, 2022
Nicole DeBlase, lead analyst covering the US Multi-Industry and Machinery Research, speaks with Luke Templeman, Thematic Research Analyst, on the macro setup of the sector in 2022. Often said to be a bellwether for the economy, will Industrials be constructive or destructive in 2022 as the US begins to raise interest rates? [more]

More documents about "Sectors and resources"

199 Documents
May 20, 2022
Region:
1
In this edition of Focus Germany we look at the cyclical, short-term challenges brought about by the Ukraine war with regard to growth, inflation and public finances. We also analyse the more structural longer-term challenges, such as reducing the countries’ energy dependence on Russia and the governing coalition’s efforts to integrate new priorities precipitated by the historic watershed into its already very ambitious agenda. [more]
May 5, 2022
Region:
2
In 2021, global sales in the semiconductor industry reached an all-time high of USD 556 bn. Despite this record figure, the industry currently faces severe challenges as the present semiconductor cycle is characterized by a triple whammy: Huge demand due to a boost for digitalization, COVID-related and non-COVID related supply shortages and geopolitical tensions. Due to the sharp rise in chip demand, new chip factories are currently being built in the US, Asia and Europe to meet rising demand over the next decade. We think, the present sales cycle will be extraordinary long. [more]
March 25, 2022
Region:
Analyst:
3
Despite many years of expansion of renewable energies, Germany is – as most other industrialised countries in the world are – still dependent on fossil fuels. Germany imports close to 70% of its energy resources with Russia currently the most important supplier of fossil fuels. Germany aims to reduce its dependency on energy imports from Russia as fast as possible and plans to massively expand renewable energies but will also invest in LNG infrastructure to diversify gas supply. The short-term risk of being cut off from Russian gas and oil supply is more pronounced in the heating market and less severe in the electricity sector. A faster expansion of renewables is a consequence of the current energy crisis, but no short-term solution given limitations on the supply side. [more]
March 4, 2022
Region:
4
War in Ukraine – slowing but not ending the German recovery. In a moderate economic scenario (which is our new baseline forecast) we expect German GDP to grow by between 2 ½% and 3% (old forecast 4%). Surging energy prices should push the annual inflation rate to around 5 ½% in 2022. Government spending is expected to be ramped up by 1 ¼ and 1 ½ pp, limiting the overall growth loss. In a more severe scenario headline inflation could rise to between 6 ½% and 7%, as oil and gas deliveries are at least temporarily halted. Annual GDP growth should be a meagre 1% to 1 ½%. [more]
February 21, 2022
Region:
5
James Brand, Head of European Utility Research discusses with Debbie Jones, Global Head of ESG Company Research the ambitious targets set by Germany's coalition government, arguably Europe's most ambitious decarbonisation targets. The targets aims to transform Germany's power market, reaching 80% renewable generation by 2030 while closing its remaining nuclear plants and phasing out coal. It could put Germany at the forefront of the energy transition. [more]
December 17, 2021
Region:
7
Quantum 2.0 super technologies will massively change the way we live and work. Quantum has the potential to shape a new economic era. The vision of Quantum 2.0 is that processing power of quantum computing could skyrocket which allows the development of previously technologically unfeasible products and technologies such as an ultra-high performance secure quantum internet. Real-time quantum applications and quantum AI might organize our daily lives. It could also open the door to a new kind of science with novel materials and products in probably every field from medicine to chemistry and physics. As a consequence of these developments, the number of new goods and services may explode. This potential revolution leads to new economic and social questions which we tackle in this publication. It also provides an overview about developments in quantum computing and quantum software. [more]
December 15, 2021
Region:
8
4% GDP growth in 2022, despite technical recession in winter half. A synchronous acceleration should result in annual GDP growth of 4%. In 2023, quarterly GDP growth will slow towards trend. In fiscal policy ambitious spending plans and debt brake commitment lead to open funding questions. Based on the previous fiscal regime, the fiscal deficit is set to narrow considerably. Still, the new government’s big spending plans, which are not yet quantifiable, could drive deficits considerably higher. Inflation decelerating from 5%+ rates, but higher core rate more permanent. Carryover effects and cost pressures will keep CPI inflation elevated. In 2023, headline and core rates are unlikely to fall below 2%. German politics 2022: “Team Scholz” will focus on climate protection and sizeable corporate tax allowances for green and digital investments. German EU policy might be less fiscal orthodox and open to a cautious reform of the EU’s fiscal rules. [more]
October 8, 2021
Region:
9
Never since reunification have industrial companies in Germany complained as much about material bottlenecks as they do at present. In addition to physical shortages of intermediate products, rising prices are also currently problematic for companies. This is reflected in producer prices. In August 2021, they were around 12% higher than a year earlier – the biggest increase since December 1974. The latest development is not a German phenomenon. In many countries around the world, the current economic recovery is being dampened by supply bottlenecks and higher prices. Supply bottlenecks and rising prices for intermediate goods are hampering the economic recovery in the manufacturing sector. Here, new orders in August 2021 exceeded the production level by close to 22%. Overall, we expect supply chain disruptions to keep us busy into 2022, although the low point in the supply crisis may be behind us. [more]
September 8, 2021
Region:
Analyst:
10
Due to the continuing shortage of semiconductors, 2021 will be another weak year for Germany as an automotive location. Although the current economic and supply crisis may have reached its low point, a return to earlier highs is unlikely – even in the medium term. By contrast, German auto manufacturers are reporting positive results and gaining share in important markets. The discrepancy between Germany as an automotive location and the German auto industry is becoming apparent. [more]
September 3, 2021
Region:
Analyst:
11
The goal is clear: In the future, Germany’s energy needs are to be met to the largest possible extent by electricity from renewable sources. This will entail high initial expenses for companies and households, as existing infrastructure will have to be retrofitted or replaced. At the same time, companies and households have seen electricity prices rise more strongly than petrol, diesel, natural gas or heating oil prices over the last few years. This suggests that policymakers should reduce the state components of electricity prices as quickly as possible. This would have favourable social-policy effects and strengthen Germany’s position as an industrial hub, particularly since it has already suffered considerably from electricity-price-related burdens. [more]
August 10, 2021
Region:
Analyst:
12
Demand for electric vehicles has recently surged. Two key drivers are behind this gain in market share: Tight caps on vehicle CO2 emissions combined with the classification of electric cars as zero-emission vehicles and subsidies to buyers of electric cars. The transition to e-mobility helps to protect the climate. The contribution to climate protection will rise over time due to technological progress and scale effects in production. However, it is small and expensive for now. For every one million electric cars sold in Germany in the next few years, the total fiscal effect amounts to at least EUR 15 bn over the twelve years after the sale. Carbon abatement costs may amount to more than EUR 1,000 per ton. The current regulatory regime is obviously neither efficient from an economic vantage point nor effective in environmental protection terms. [more]
30.3.9