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Returns from residential real estate: Red and orange predominate

December 16, 2020

Returns from residential real estate: Red and orange predominate

Region:
Germany
Chart in Focus
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Online PDF 111k
The COVID-19 crisis has intensified the lack of profitable low-risk investments, which is why numerous investors probably regard the German residential market as an attractive alternative to the bond markets. Rental returns have been trending downwards for ten years now, and the development looks set to continue until the spread between rental returns and low-risk bond yields has narrowed significantly further. [more]
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More documents contained in "Chart in Focus"

58 Documents
    

OTC derivatives trading: First signs of a shift from London towards EU financial centres

March 3, 2023
Region:
Europe
Topic:
Banking and financial markets
Analyst:
Ursula Walther
Chart in Focus
1
London continues to be the leading trading hub for OTC interest rate derivatives with a market share of 46% and an average daily turnover of USD 2.6 tr. However, the UK has lost ground since 2019 when its market share was still 51%. This is due to the transition away from Libor as well as the ongoing efforts of EU authorities to bring more derivatives clearing into the bloc. [more]

German housing market: History suggests it is an inflation hedge

March 1, 2023
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Chart in Focus
3
We calculate a nominal and real return triangle for German house prices from 1970 to 2022. The market offered an inflation hedge in the past. This is in particular true for periods of high inflation as in these periods house prices even exceeded inflation. The huge supply shortage and rising rents are further arguments for a bottoming out of house prices in 2023. [more]

Europe finally catching up on the US?

December 20, 2022
Region:
Europe
Topic:
Banking and financial markets
Analyst:
Jan Schildbach
Chart in Focus
4
For more than a decade, European banks have sought to catch up and narrow the gap to their US peers. For many years, they were not particularly successful, due to a number of reasons: economic growth in the US outpaced that in Europe, interest rates were consistently higher (and never negative) on the other side of the Atlantic, and restructuring and capital raising needs were greater in Europe which constrained the banks’ ability to expand their business. In the past few years, however, European banks’ performance has indeed improved and they have not just made substantial progress, but also seem well positioned to finally reduce the distance to their US competitors. [more]

The end of negative ECB interest rates: German banks reduce their vault cash

September 14, 2022
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets
Analyst:
Heike Mai
Chart in Focus
6
On July 21, the ECB announced that it would raise the interest rate on the deposit facility from -0.5% to 0%, effective July 27. By the end of that very month, banks in Germany had reduced their stock of banknotes and coins by a record EUR 11 billion. There is much to suggest that they will continue to reduce their non-interest-bearing cash holdings, as the ECB interest rate will rise further to 0.75% in mid-September. [more]

Germany's current account: The end of criticism

July 21, 2022
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Chart in Focus
8
Germany's current account is in flux. Currently, the "terms of trade" shock is reducing the surplus in the goods balance. But structural factors such as the reduced importance of industry and demographics also point to lower surpluses. In addition, we expect a further narrowing of the deficits in the services balance. The surpluses from the primary and secondary balance, on the other hand, are likely to increase further. In total, the current account ratio will fall sharply in 2022, especially measured in terms of GDP, and will also tend to be significantly lower than in the past thereafter. Accordingly, criticism of Germany's surpluses is likely to become increasingly muted. [more]

Voter demographics – is Germany a gerontocracy?

August 19, 2021
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Germany's super election year 2021
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Ursula Walther
Chart in Focus
10
For the German federal elections in September, about 60m voters are called to cast their ballot. Despite more than half of voters being 50 years and above, it would still be too far-fetched to say that Germany has become a so-called gerontocracy, where the interests of the older dominate the political process. Moreover, the pandemic could curb participation among all age groups. [more]

Youth unemployment pre and post COVID-19

July 14, 2020
Region:
International
Topic:
Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Chart in Focus
12
The unemployment rates of teenagers and young adults were already attracting attention during the financial and euro crisis. The corona crisis has again led to massive distortions on the labour markets in many countries. However, the initial development of the official youth unemployment rate was fairly diverse internationally. In some countries the unemployment rate has even fallen sharply. [more]
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