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An updated world outlook

March 24, 2021
Analyst:
A year ago, markets were in freefall. The Covid pandemic was still largely in its infancy, but investors were quickly realizing that a massive recession was looming. Fast forward to today and the conversation is very different as we contemplate if growth will run too hot, how high will inflation get and could the Fed fall behind the curve. In a recent updated World Outlook report, Deutsche Bank’s Global Economics team has raised its forecast for global growth in 2021 to nearly 7%, which is well above consensus. Here is why. [more]

More documents contained in "dbInSights - public"

66 (21-32)
December 20, 2021
24
2021 was a record year in steel. We expect three key drivers to support an above-average margin environment over the next two to three years: 1) demand growth in Western markets, 2) policy support in places like China (which constrains both output and exports of steel) and 3) inflation at the tail of the cost curve. [more]
December 20, 2021
Analyst:
25
The plot for emerging markets thickens further in 2022. Not just the one with Fed ‘dots’, but also the plot around the vaccination roll outs, the zero Covid strategy in China, the normalization of supply chains, and on (geo)politics, among others. There are likely still multiple twists ahead in this tale, and possibly new factors (like Omicron) to deal with. And with all of that, the answer to whether EM can turn around its structural under-allocation from the last several years as it builds back on its appeal of carry/vol and growth. [more]
December 8, 2021
Region:
Analyst:
27
In Freight, Logistics and Container Shipping, we think 2022 will be a record year for earnings and FCF. With corporate balance sheets in good shape we see scope for significant shareholder returns we expect freight demand to be led by an inventory re-build and not the consumer. In Airlines & Airports, the latest travel restrictions will clearly mean some lost revenues and the return of booking hesitancy this winter. Medium-term, however, expectations are unlikely to have to change given pent-up demand for travel and the restructuring that’s been done, supporting valuations. [more]
December 6, 2021
Analyst:
28
Inflation is not transitory, in our view. While its destination might be clear, detours and delays are possible -- as highlighted by last week's Omicron sell-off. Nevertheless, at c.8x earnings, the sector is not priced for imminent interest rate hikes, pointing to upside in case of delivery of interest rate hikes -- the key theme for the sector in 2022. [more]
November 16, 2021
30
Governments from around the world will parade their climate credentials at the COP26 summit ... but when the dust has settled, much of the pressure to implement their plans will be delegated to corporates. Post-COP, firms will be pushed via policy or social pressure to spend more to mitigate climate change. The cost may be high but proactive firms are already being rewarded by customers and investors. Those that delay may face penalties. [more]
November 8, 2021
31
Jose Gonzalez, Quant Strategist discusses a recently published study on the topic of Commodity Curve Investing; uncovering two crucial term-structure characteristics 1) the commodity curve shows significant momentum patterns 2) recent slope moves contain information about future price changes for an example. Systematic investors can exploit these phenomena through two quant strategies: Curve Momentum and Curve Spillover Momentum. [more]
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