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Jochen Moebert

Analyst
Macroeconomics

Topics:
Foreign trade, balance of payments, real estate

Address:
Mainzer Landstraße 11-17
60329 Frankfurt
Germany

Contact:
Deutsche Bank Research

More documents written by Jochen Moebert

111 Documents
    
December 8, 2023

Outlook 2024: The year of disenchantment?

Region:
Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Heike Mai, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider, Ursula Walther
Focus Germany
1
The external environment as well as monetary and fiscal policy should provide strong headwinds. Sentiment will likely be dragged lower by the increasingly evident structural problems. We anticipate a modest recession during the winter half to be followed by a gradual recovery from spring onwards. We expect the government to survive the internal quarrels with respect to the 2024 budget, following the constitutional court ruling. Debt brake reform is unlikely in the short run. A cross-party consensus for a Transformation Fund 2.0 might emerge before September regional elections. [more]
December 1, 2023

Semiconductor market: AI boom boosted prices but units sold collapsed

Region:
Germany
Topic:
Digital
Analyst:
Hermann P. Rapp, Jochen Moebert
Focus Germany
2
The AI boom has had important implications for the semiconductor market. In particular the logic chips are in high demand. In 2023 surging demand was constrained by shrinking supply. This resulted in a substantial fall in units sold whereas prices surged. Here we analyze the underlying economic and technological drivers and forecast the development of global sales of the semiconductor market until the end of 2025. [more]
October 20, 2023

Smart Cities: Investing in the urban future

Region:
Germany
Topic:
Digital, Real estate
Analyst:
Hermann P. Rapp, Jochen Moebert
Focus Germany
3
Current advances in AI and a media-savvy generation - in combination with the Internet of Things, edge computing and 5G - provide the opportunity to rethink smart city models such as City 5.0 and soft city. We discuss some use cases – and the trade-offs to be resolved – that arise from connecting and automating a city. Besides digital platforms – now augmented by AI –, smart city market segments such as smart buildings, digital energy and environmental solutions are expected to grow strongly in the coming years. Since not all of these are likely to be publicly funded, interesting investment opportunities do arise to create more efficient, sustainable, and livable urban spaces. [more]
October 13, 2023

A double-dip recession

Region:
Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Heike Mai, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider, Ursula Walther
Focus Germany
4
A double-dip recession. Hard and soft data point to a GDP contraction of about 0.3% in Q3. Despite receding inflation,we expect that private consumption will only gradually come out of its rut, as consumer confidence has remained depressed. While the overall decline in GDP over the double-dip recession (Q4 22/Q1 23 and Q3 23) will probably be less than 1 percentage point, a renewed fall in GDP provides another blow to already downbeat German confidence. This negative feedback loop will likely weigh on the economy in 2024. In particular, structural supply bottlenecks look set to hamper growth opportunities and the energy transition is likely to slow potential growth in Germany towards 0.5% and keep the inflation rate above 2%. [more]
September 29, 2023

Germany’s competitiveness between pioneer and laggard

Region:
Germany
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert, Julius Schumann
Talking Point
5
Once again, some see Germany as the “sick man of Europe”. This week, the 2023 ranking of the Global Innovation Index is released with Germany at rank 8, again. It does not only provide a good measure for innovation but also gives important insights into a country’s competitiveness. Indeed, there are numerous challenges especially with respect to digitalization and demographics. But Germany is also still a powerhouse in providing excellent R&D. [more]
July 25, 2023

"Midterm review" – reforms to tackle the new growth challenge

Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider, Ursula Walther
Focus Germany
7
Germany’s growth is under pressure from renewed cyclical and structural headwinds. In this edition of Focus Germany we introduce our new Nowcast Model for German GDP, predicting that the German economy should have expanded in Q2, but that risks for activity in H2 are increasing. We take the summer break in Berlin as an opportunity for a midterm review of the traffic-light coalition’s work. In a historic flashback we revisit the challenges Germany was facing when the Economist called it the sick man of the euro and which policy measures transformed the country into an Economic superstar a decade later. We find interesting parallels to today’s situation. [more]
April 21, 2023

2023 Housing market outlook: Price dip and interest rate peak ahead. Significantly higher prices likely in the long term. Refurbishment costs are taken into account

Region:
Germany
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Germany Monitor
9
The boom is over. Five key arguments lead us to expect only a price dip. Negative real interest rates, inflation protection through real estate, rising rental growth and most importantly a high fundamental supply shortage. In addition, real house prices have already fallen very sharply due to the surge in inflation. CO2 emissions from buildings are increasingly coming into focus. Prices have started to diverge between properties with low and high emissions. This divergence is likely to increase. [more]
March 9, 2023

The German economy – one year after

Region:
Germany
Topic:
Banking and financial markets, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Eric Heymann, Jan Schildbach, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Marion Mühlberger, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider, Ursula Walther
Focus Germany
11
The German economy – one year after. With surprisingly strong hard data for January, chances are rising that GDP might be saved from another decline in Q1. Although not yet our baseline call, this would prevent Germany from going through a technical recession. However, still heightened uncertainty and real income losses due to high inflation will likely keep investment spending and private consumption flatlining in the first half of the year. Hence, we maintain our 0% forecast for 2023 German GDP growth, although upside risks have increased since the start of the year. [more]
March 1, 2023

German housing market: History suggests it is an inflation hedge

Region:
Germany
Topic:
Real estate
Analyst:
Jochen Moebert
Chart in Focus
12
We calculate a nominal and real return triangle for German house prices from 1970 to 2022. The market offered an inflation hedge in the past. This is in particular true for periods of high inflation as in these periods house prices even exceeded inflation. The huge supply shortage and rising rents are further arguments for a bottoming out of house prices in 2023. [more]
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