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The European banking sector is currently enjoying a sweet spot. Recent interest rate increases by central banks in most advanced economies combined with strong credit growth are having a pronounced positive impact on revenues, while loan loss provisions remain fairly low so far, although they have started to climb. Bottom line, growth in administrative expenses, individual banks’ tax and litigation payments as well as Russia-related losses have reduced net income, but the industry is still on track for a decent full-year result. More importantly, fundamentally higher-for-longer interest rates may support banks’ business prospects also in the medium term. [mehr]

The 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar is about to start, so it is a good time to reflect on the relationship between the sporting world’s Greatest of All Time and remote work. The increasing popularity of remote work has disrupted traditional models of business and employment. There are shifting views of what work will look like in the future, so it is a topic that cannot be ignored. But, to make the most out of flexible remote work now, workers can learn from top athletes. [mehr]

In our new series ‘Making Sense of Space’ we discuss various aspects of the Space ecosystem. The second episode dives into connectivity constellations and how optical/laser terminals could boost performance. Edison Yu, lead on research coverage of Space & Aerial Mobility, speaks with Bulent Altan, CEO of Mynaric and also an early SpaceX employee. [mehr]

In our latest edition of “Q&A with”, Luke Templeman, Thematic Research Analyst, shares his view on the implications of rising wage costs, greater political instability and higher interest rates for corporates. [mehr]

The next iteration of UNFCC’s Conference of Parties, COP 27 is taking place in Egypt. As part of the Global South and home to one of world’s most diverse marine life, the location of Sharm-El-Sheikh in Egypt is quite relevant to this year’s conference. The event serves as the United Nation’s (UN) annual Climate Change summit and is intended to bring ~200 countries together to accelerate action towards goals of the Paris Agreement (2015) and limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. [mehr]

Amidst the backdrop of rampant food inflation, this year’s COP27 in the Egyptian city of Sharm El-Sheikh (November 6-18) will be critical. That is because food inflation has been stronger than overall inflation. In fact, in March the US hit an inflection point when food and beverages CPI outpaced broader CPI. This is not just a US issue. The food inflation problem is a global phenomenon. [mehr]

Perry Kojodjojo and Oliver Harvey from Deutsche Bank Emerging Market Research discuss the recently published EM Currency and Local Markets Handbook. The new and revitalised handbook covers over 30 local EM markets in detail, covering liquidity, market structure and regulations in FX, local bonds and IRS, as well as targeted descriptions of monetary policy and market participants. The Handbook is designed to be an essential tool for institutional and corporate clients in navigating an increasingly complex and fragmented EM regulatory and macro environment, with new sections on unconventional monetary policy by EM central banks, new markets such as Kenya and Pakistan and a discussion of the evolving EM market landscape. [mehr]

Global sales of semiconductors reached an all-time high in 2021. At the same time, global tensions and growing awareness of the fragility of supply chains have led to a reassessment of the strategic importance of global supply chains and semiconductors. We use our Structural Semiconductor Sales Model (3SM) to explore the extent to which government initiatives on digital sovereignty in the US, Europe, and Asia will impact chip manufacturing capacities. In doing so, we calculate structural (i.e., non-cyclical) supply and demand for the period up to 2030. Assuming a continuation of historical supply and demand trends and a further tightening of the ratio of sales to investments (sales-to-capex ratio), it is our forecast that a huge structural demand gap will emerge in 2030 that cannot be closed by the government subsidy programs announced to date. From this perspective, today’s temporary supply chain issues may overlap with or be succeeded by structural shortages. [mehr]

In this video Gianpaolo Tomasi discusses the quant team’s work on news-based datasets for cash equity portfolios. [mehr]

Digital policy has become increasingly important in recent years. With its digital strategy, the German government has presented an agenda for which a digital budget is to be adopted in the Bundestag in November 2022. This is an important contribution by Germany to the EU's Digital Decade, particularly in the four areas of connectivity (5G and fiber coverage), digital skills, the use of digital technologies and AI in companies, and the provision of digital public services. Further legislative initiatives at EU level have as their goal the creation of a digital space in order to be able to compete internationally with Asia and the USA. To this end, the German government's digital strategy sets priorities in 25 fields of action. The next three years will be decisive for an effective implementation of the digital reform program for Germany. [mehr]