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Globale Suche

1732 (71-80)
22. Dezember 2021
Wie immer um diese Jahreszeit stecken wir mitten in den Festvorbereitungen und manch einer fasst auch wieder gute Vorsätze für das neue Jahr – und wie immer erstellen wir Volkswirte unsere Ausblicke mit Prognosen für die nächsten zwölf oder vierundzwanzig Monate. Die Entwicklungen in den vergangenen beiden Jahren sollten jedoch selbst die stursten Vertreter der Gattung „Igel“ davon überzeugt haben, dass sich die Zukunft sehr viel schlechter vorhersagen lässt als wir gern glauben möchten. Dabei werden insbesondere Probleme der „systemischen Komplexität“ unseres Erachtens weder von den Prognostikern noch von den Rezipienten der Prognosen hinreichend gewürdigt. Der künftige Verlauf der COVID-19-Pandemie und die erhoffte, langsame Auflösung der Lieferengpässe sind die beiden zentralen Annahmen – wohlgemerkt: Annahmen, nicht Vorhersagen –, die für die BIP- und Inflationsprognosen derzeit entscheidend sind. Beide Annahmen sind praktisch Lehrbuchbeispiele für systemische Komplexität. Das gilt vermutlich auch für den Philips-Kurven-Ansatz, auf dem die Inflationsprognosen meist beruhen. Seien wir ehrlich: Der Glaube an Inflationsprognosen, womöglich gar an deren Nachkommastellen für einen Zeitraum von mehreren Jahren, ist genauso fundiert wie der Glaube an den Weihnachtsmann. [mehr]
22. Dezember 2021
It is, once again, the season of the year when not only are we preparing for Christmas holidays and starting to think about new year resolutions, but economic forecasters are also offering their outlooks for the upcoming year. However, the last two years should have convinced even the most stubborn hedgehog that there is far less predictability, let alone certainty, around us than we like to believe. In particular, problems resulting from “system complexity” are, in our view, not sufficiently appreciated by forecasters and the recipients of these forecasts, alike. The critical assumptions, nota bene assumptions not predictions, driving – to a large extent – GDP and inflation forecasts for the next one or two years, are the future development of the COVID-19 pandemic and the – hoped for – gradual easing of supply bottlenecks, both almost textbook examples of system complexity. So are, probably, the Philips curve models used to forecast inflation. Let’s face it, believing in inflation forecasts with exact numbers, even behind the decimal point, for several years out, is little different to believing in Santa Claus. [mehr]
20. Dezember 2021
The plot for emerging markets thickens further in 2022. Not just the one with Fed ‘dots’, but also the plot around the vaccination roll outs, the zero Covid strategy in China, the normalization of supply chains, and on (geo)politics, among others. There are likely still multiple twists ahead in this tale, and possibly new factors (like Omicron) to deal with. And with all of that, the answer to whether EM can turn around its structural under-allocation from the last several years as it builds back on its appeal of carry/vol and growth. [mehr]
20. Dezember 2021
2021 was a record year in steel. We expect three key drivers to support an above-average margin environment over the next two to three years: 1) demand growth in Western markets, 2) policy support in places like China (which constrains both output and exports of steel) and 3) inflation at the tail of the cost curve. [mehr]
20. Dezember 2021
Asian markets have been much more resilient than the other emerging markets of Central and Eastern Europe Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA) and Latin America in 2021. Whether this endures in 2022 will be determined by whether US equities can withstand the Fed raising rates (tightening), renminbi stability can continue, and benign inflation in Asia can last. [mehr]
17. Dezember 2021
4% BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2022, trotz technischer Rezession im Winterhalbjahr. Eine synchrone Beschleunigung dürfte zu einem jährlichen BIP-Wachstum von 4% führen. In 2023 werden sich die Quartalsraten auf Trendwachstum verlangsamen. In der Fiskalpolitik führen ehrgeizige Ausgabenpläne und Festhalten an der Schuldenbremse zu offenen Finanzierungsfragen. Auf Basis des bisherigen fiskalischen Regimes wird das Haushaltsdefizit deutlich zurückgehen. Die großen, aber noch nicht bezifferten Ausgabenpläne der neuen Regierung bergen Aufwärtsrisken. Abschwächung der Inflationsraten von über 5%, aber Kernrate wegen Kostenexplosion und großen Preisüberwälzungsspielräumen dauerhaft höher. Gesamt- und Kerninflationsraten dürften auch im Jahr 2023 nicht unter 2% fallen. Neue Bundesregierung: „Team Scholz“ wird Klimaschutz und umfangreiche Steuererleichterungen für grüne und digitale Investitionen in den Mittelpunkt stellen. Die deutsche EU-Politik mit weniger fiskalischem Dogma offener für vorsichtige Reform der EU-Defizitregeln. [mehr]
17. Dezember 2021
Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research, US speaks with Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief Economist discussing economic predictions over the next two years. They base their ominous predictions on several factors: Inflation is pushing 6% or more in Europe and the US while central banks continue quantitative easing. A new and more infectious strain of Covid is spreading rapidly as vaccination rates lag. Supply chains remain clogged with delivery times and transport costs near all time highs. Potential populist-driven political turmoil, climactic tempests, and geopolitical storms loom. [mehr]
17. Dezember 2021
The rebound of Europe’s banking sector from last year’s slump in some ways resembles the recovery following the financial crisis. Just the drivers are different. While in 2009 the main improvement came from much lower writedowns on securities portfolios, in 2021 it was much lower loan loss provisions than in the prior year. In both cases, benign capital markets provided an additional tailwind for investment banking franchises. The industry’s capital and liquidity levels remain high. Maintaining this momentum in 2022 will be more difficult as the low-hanging fruit has been picked. But it may still be possible, given past experience and confidence that the macro economy will continue to gain strength once the pandemic (and supply constraints in manufacturing) has subsided. [mehr]
17. Dezember 2021
Quantum 2.0 super technologies will massively change the way we live and work. Quantum has the potential to shape a new economic era. The vision of Quantum 2.0 is that processing power of quantum computing could skyrocket which allows the development of previously technologically unfeasible products and technologies such as an ultra-high performance secure quantum internet. Real-time quantum applications and quantum AI might organize our daily lives. It could also open the door to a new kind of science with novel materials and products in probably every field from medicine to chemistry and physics. As a consequence of these developments, the number of new goods and services may explode. This potential revolution leads to new economic and social questions which we tackle in this publication. It also provides an overview about developments in quantum computing and quantum software. [mehr]
15. Dezember 2021
4% GDP growth in 2022, despite technical recession in winter half. A synchronous acceleration should result in annual GDP growth of 4%. In 2023, quarterly GDP growth will slow towards trend. In fiscal policy ambitious spending plans and debt brake commitment lead to open funding questions. Based on the previous fiscal regime, the fiscal deficit is set to narrow considerably. Still, the new government’s big spending plans, which are not yet quantifiable, could drive deficits considerably higher. Inflation decelerating from 5%+ rates, but higher core rate more permanent. Carryover effects and cost pressures will keep CPI inflation elevated. In 2023, headline and core rates are unlikely to fall below 2%. German politics 2022: “Team Scholz” will focus on climate protection and sizeable corporate tax allowances for green and digital investments. German EU policy might be less fiscal orthodox and open to a cautious reform of the EU’s fiscal rules. [mehr]