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January 16, 2019
Deutsche Bank Research launches the twentieth edition of the Quantcraft series, a one of a kind deep dive into new trading and analytical models across different asset classes. It helps clients understand structural drivers of market returns and how to systematically extract value from them. The latest report focusses on foreign exchange. Not only does it assess the sensitivity of global currency returns to pertinent drivers including sentiment, valuations, monetary policy and interest rate differentials, but it also guides the investor on how to use those drivers to make economically rewarding decisions. Our research targets all investors involved in foreign exchange, from the corporate treasurer seeking to efficiently manage currency risk to the institutional investor building absolute return strategies. [more]
January 15, 2019
Region:
Banks in Europe face a more difficult business environment in 2019 than last year. While the macro environment is still decent, momentum is cooling markedly. In addition, prominent political risks loom dangerously. On the operating side, banks are treading water. Their limited cost savings are being fully absorbed by declining revenues, and balance sheets continue to shrink despite a moderate pickup in lending. Profitability and capital levels are both stagnating. Only in a benign economic and political scenario will banks be able to return to growth this year. [more]
December 20, 2018
Region:
Germans are known as heavy cash users. In 2017, they paid cash for most of their purchase transactions. If they do not use cash, they prefer to pay by direct debit or card. Credit transfers and e-money payments are used less often. Germans initiated almost one fifth of cashless payments via the internet. Mobile payments were rarely used but this will likely change given a number of new mobile payment services came on the market in 2018. In Q3, German households took out an impressive EUR 16 bn in net new loans, the highest quarterly figure since the introduction of the euro. Of this, EUR 13 bn came from mortgages, while consumer lending lost some pace. Deposit inflows were buoyant for a Q3 and German households increased their savings rate to 10.7%. [more]
December 14, 2018
Analyst:
Ahead of and during the UN Climate Summit at Katowice, the usual warnings were heard, saying that a reduction in global carbon emissions was urgently necessary. However, these political calls are much too vague. Instead, the most inconvenient message remains unsaid: The technologies which are available today and in the foreseeable future will, in all probability, prove insufficient to counteract climate change to the necessary extent and with the necessary speed and, at the same time, allow households to stick to their consumption patterns and continue with the well-established division of labour along international production chains. [more]
December 14, 2018
Region:
The 0.2% qoq drop in Q3 GDP was, of course, largely due to the WLTP effect, but underlying growth has also clearly slowed in 2018. After mustering 1.6% in 2018, we expect German GDP to expand by 1.3% in 2019. Growth should be only marginally higher in 2020, despite a strong positive working day effect, as a further slowing of the global economy and EUR appreciation will provide considerable external headwinds. [more]
December 12, 2018
Topic:
Since the rally in 2017, the buzzwords bitcoin and blockchain have been omnipresent in the public. Still, the understanding of how much potential the technology actually offers is often rudimentary. To shed more light onto the discussion, we discuss the manifold technological facets as well as the social changes that might come on the heels of the technology. After outlining the utopia, we point out the technical as well as the social hurdles that are standing in the way of the revolution. [more]
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