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626 (51-60)
April 4, 2019
Analyst:
52
April 1 marked an important milestone for China’s financial markets, as Chinese Yuan-denominated bonds are to be included in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index. According to Bloomberg, the index will include over 360 eligible bonds, with a c.6% weight, making it the fourth-largest currency component in the index, after the USD, the EUR and the JPY, and the inclusion will take place over a 20-month period. [more]
April 3, 2019
Region:
53
At the recent meeting of the Governing Council on 7 March 2019, the ECB decided to maintain an extremely expansionary degree of monetary accommodation in future. It now announced to keep target rates at their present extraordinarily low levels at least through year-end 2019 – instead of just "through the summer", as previously pledged. Furthermore, it reiterated that it intends to maintain the huge size of EMU sovereign bond holdings purchased between March 2015 and the end of December 2018 for an incalculable period of time. As a consequence, principal payments from maturing securities bought under the APP (asset purchase programme), including sovereign bonds from the PSPP portfolio (public sector purchase programme) have to be reinvested in full. This ought to support demand for EMU bonds for some time to come, putting downward pressure on yields. [more]
March 26, 2019
55
In the competition for global leadership in technologies like artificial intelligence, most observers see a two-horse race – between China and the United States. But what about Europe? Can it ever catch up to the galloping favorites? It won’t be easy. The digital economy in the United States has big advantages: a large domestic market, a risk-taking investment culture, and plenty of innovative companies and world-class universities. US tech giants were first-movers out of the gates, and used the network effects of the platform economy to dominate not only the US, but many other markets worldwide. [more]
March 25, 2019
Region:
57
While digitalisation does promise significant additional prosperity, it also threatens to lead to higher inequality. A major automation wave or increasingly capital-intensive production would reduce the overall wage share and raise corporate and capital income. According to our scenario analysis, the EU countries would, on average, have to deal with a huge annual fiscal deficit if automation dramatically reduced employment. It is uncertain how digitalisation will affect the demand for labour and the public finances. Nevertheless, governments should try and prepare their countries for the future, for example by paying more attention to education policy and adapting the international tax system to the realities of the 21st century, for example in the field of corporate taxation. [more]
March 18, 2019
Region:
Analyst:
58
Although the negative effects from the WLTP roll-out are currently petering out in German auto statistics, the recent weakness of global demand argues against a swift recovery of auto production in Germany. In 2019, passenger car sales look set to shrink slightly or at best stagnate in some key markets (US, EMU, UK), whilst rising only moderately in others (China). A rebound is unlikely to materialise before H2 2019, when output is also expected to turn positive in year-over-year terms. Going by the production index, annualised automotive output in Germany ought to be more or less flat in 2019, in our view. [more]
March 14, 2019
Region:
60
The house price cycle in Germany should remain in place in 2019. But we expect much more divergence across regions and a heavily increasing complexity of causal impact channels. Led by immigration and the continuous labour market uptrend, house prices and rents will likely continue to rise. The risk of overvaluations and a full-blown price bubble in the German housing market is rising. However, the price uptrend is likely to continue for years to come, in Germany as a whole and in most major cities. In this report we look at the housing markets in Munich, Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Düsseldorf, Stuttgart and Leipzig and we comment on the German office market. [more]
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