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655 (21-30)
September 2, 2019
23
Listen to Oliver Harvey, Macro Strategist, discuss the latest on Brexit. The UK government intends to prorogue parliament from 10th September to 14th October when the government will hold a Queen's Speech. This limits the ability of MPs to table legislation to prevent no deal Brexit and signals that the Johnson government may be prepared to break constitutional precedent to take the UK out of the EU without a deal. At the same time, it could crystallise opposition to a no deal Brexit this week in the House of Commons leading to a unity government. [more]
September 2, 2019
Region:
24
The government will hold a Queen's Speech - an outline of the government's legislative agenda. The votes on the Queen's Speech will be held on the 21st and 22nd October, with amendments possible only on these days. Under this schedule, the UK Parliament has just under a week in early September followed by just over a week in late October to prevent a no deal outcome. In practical terms, this schedule limits the ability of MPs to take a legislative route to block a no deal Brexit. [more]
August 30, 2019
Region:
25
The number of bank branches in Germany has declined sharply, to 28,000 in 2018 from around 40,000 in 2007. With 33 bank branches per 100,000 inhabitants, branch density in Germany is still relatively high. Almost 70% of Germans visit a branch at least once per month. Clients who have a loan or a private pension plan or are a FinTech user are more likely to visit a bank branch, in contrast to Millennials and less wealthy Germans. In Q2, loans to German households were up by a record EUR 16.9 bn qoq and 4.4% yoy. Mortgages surged by EUR 13.2 bn and consumer loans grew dynamically by EUR 2.9 bn, too. Deposits again rose strongly by EUR 34.4 bn. [more]
August 30, 2019
Region:
26
Given that in the meantime most official forecasters agree with us that the Germans will suffer at least a technical recession, even German politicians and commentators are starting to join the so far mainly Anglo-Saxon chorus, asking for countercyclical fiscal measures. In our view the government should only act if there is clear evidence that we might be at the brink of a deep recession. Despite the undoubtedly massive economic policy uncertainties we do currently not expect such a scenario. [more]
August 23, 2019
Region:
27
What should an honest and law-abiding German citizen think when their finance minister, a high-ranking representative of the state, is investigating whether he can protect them from the actions of another state body, the central bank? This is exactly what the Bavarian Prime Minister Söder is calling for: a ban on negative interest on bank deposits (up to a certain level), whose chances of realisation are now being examined by the Federal Ministry of Finance. [more]
August 22, 2019
Region:
28
The digital transformation has enriched societal discourse through new forms of multilateral communication, but it has also amplified the spread of misinformation, echo chambers and propaganda, offering authoritarian states new means of surveillance and control. How democracies approach this challenge will be a key factor in their performance, given intensifying competition among political systems. [more]
August 19, 2019
Region:
29
We see Germany in a technical recession, as we expect another ¼% GDP drop in Q3. Our forecast for 2019 is now 0.3%. Given no indication for a rebound we lowered our 2020 forecast to 0.7%. We acknowledge these revisions do not properly account for the recent accumulation of risks. Given the increasingly fragile state of the global economy, the realization of one or more risks could easily push the economy into a completely different scenario, where growth revisions of a few tenths of a percentage point will not be sufficient. (Also in this issue: German automotive industry, chemical industry, house prices, corporate lending, the view from Berlin, digital politics.) [more]
August 16, 2019
30
Two decades ago, newspaper editors were told the internet age meant they had to give away content for free, create click-bait, and support it all with any advertising they could find. It hasn’t turned out that way. Fears of fake news, the shift to quality, and the lack of patience for distraction has led to growing numbers of subscribers at some of the world’s best-known mastheads. Yet, the shift is not complete. Communications and 5G technology are likely to have five impacts on the news media: the return of regional reporting with new funding models, less focus on speed, a reduction in the number of news sources people read, the acceptance of automation, and the return of television news, in a curated format. [more]
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