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May 7, 2021
Region:
1
The catalysts for a strong expansion of the German economy during the summer half are falling into place: Global demand is picking up strongly and the vaccination momentum is finally accelerating. Given the slightly smaller than expected drop of Q1 GDP (-1.7%) and upward revisions to H2 2020, we have lifted our GDP forecast for 2021 from 3.7% to 4.0%. Meanwhile election polls are hanging firmly in the balance. The nominations of Annalena Baerbock and Armin Laschet as chancellor candidates have clearly helped the Greens to gain ground. The current shift in voters’ sentiment allows for a whole bunch of coalition options. [more]
May 4, 2021
Region:
2
Given the magnitude of the recent spike/fall in polls for the Greens/Conservatives, we were asking ourselves, whether such a spike might be a one-off and if approval rates are going to mean-revert any time soon? Looking at historical episodes of spikes in voter preferences indeed shows that most of the time, approval rates tended to (partly) mean revert after a couple of weeks. Still, the Greens clearly stand out with four out of the five most recent spikes working in their favour (hot and dry summer seasons '18 &'19, Fridays for Future movement, and disappointment with Covid measures). Where does that leave us with respect to the tight race in September? [more]
April 28, 2021
Region:
3
We compare the current debate with the discussion about the introduction of the computer in the 1980s. Then as now, positive and negative effects on a macroeconomic level could almost cancel each other out at first. Accordingly, we anticipate that the question of productivity is only likely to be answered in some years’ time. [more]
April 19, 2021
Region:
6
After Berlin's rent cap was declared unconstitutional by the Federal Constitutional Court, Germany is discussing the consequences. Will there be a nationwide rent cap after the federal election in September? This is one of the most frequent and potentially most important questions for many landlords and tenants. [more]
April 15, 2021
Region:
8
On Monday, the Green party will present their first chancellor candidate in the 41-year party history. The leadership tandem of Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck is set to decide amongst themselves whom to field as candidate for the September elections, successfully avoiding any semblance of a power struggle. In our view, the odds appear slightly tilted towards Annalena Baerbock. The decision will formally be confirmed at the party convention in June. [more]
April 13, 2021
Region:
9
The Conservatives’ beauty contest for Merkel’s potential succession is finally coming to a climax. On Sunday, CSU leader Söder threw his hat into the ring to compete with CDU leader Laschet in the race for the conservatives’ chancellor candidacy. With the CDU’s (the bigger sister party) executive body fully united behind Laschet on Monday, the scale has tilted in favour of Laschet. Söder is shying away of calling for all CDU/CSU members’ to cast their vote for the candidacy. This would be a highly confrontational move which would also unduly delay the election campaign entry of the candidate. We expect the final announcement within the course of this week, i.e. before the Greens present their candidate on April 19th. [more]
14.12.0