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798 (21-30)
July 20, 2020
Region:
22
The German export sector has had to cope with numerous challenges over the last few years. These include “homemade” problems, above all in the auto industry, but also the shift in US trade policy. Climate change has become an increasingly important issue, too; in fact, it implies massive changes. That is why the long-term trend in many manufacturing sectors appeared unclear even ahead of the coronavirus pandemic. Now, COVID-19 has compounded already existing uncertainties. From our vantage point, a number of reasons support our hypothesis that continental value chains are likely to gain importance. [more]
July 14, 2020
25
The unemployment rates of teenagers and young adults were already attracting attention during the financial and euro crisis. The corona crisis has again led to massive distortions on the labour markets in many countries. However, the initial development of the official youth unemployment rate was fairly diverse internationally. In some countries the unemployment rate has even fallen sharply. [more]
July 13, 2020
Region:
26
In 2019, net migration to Germany amounted to +327,100, a significant decrease compared to the previous years. Particularly striking is the sharp decline in immigration from Poland and the sharp increase in the number of immigrants from India. In 2020, immigration is likely to collapse due to the COVID-19 crisis. Subsequently, we expect higher number again. The migration over the coming years might be driven by the skilled worker immigration law which came into force in March 2020. Also, the very good epidemiological situation in Germany compared with many other countries might be a pull factor. If net migration then returns to more than 300,000 people per year, the population is likely to rise from 83.2 million today to over 84 million by the early 2030s. [more]
July 10, 2020
Region:
27
The coronavirus recession results in large-scale balance sheet changes both at euro-area and US banks. At the peak of the slump, lending to companies and corporate deposits surged further, while lending to households was much less affected. Banks also strongly increased their funding from and liquidity buffers at central banks. Within the euro area, funding from the ECB rose particularly in Germany and France, but remains much more important in Italy and Spain. Purchases of government bonds by US banks were smaller and started later than in the EMU. Over the next couple of months, corporate loans and deposits may gradually come down both in the US and Europe. Banks’ liquidity reserves at central banks are set to decrease, while their government bond holdings are expected to rise considerably. [more]
July 9, 2020
Region:
28
With Germany’s rather successful COVID-19 strategy and the recovery and stimulus packages broadly agreed, the question of Merkel’s successor and the next German federal elections in autumn 2021 are gradually getting closer political attention again. Parties are currently not only preparing for the election, but are also arguing about the electoral law: the present law allowed the Bundestag to grow from 598 mandates to the current record size of 709 mandates, with the 2021 election likely to result in an even bigger number of seats. The Bundestag just failed to pass a reform before the summer break and thus in time for the 2021 elections. However, political and public pressure to find a solution is high and will keep the issue on the political agenda. [more]
July 2, 2020
29
A confluence of factors - a pandemic, high education costs, environmental concerns, and new instructional technology - could rapidly increase the popularity of online education. Moreover, because online platforms transcend political boundaries, top universities could gain more market share on a global level, leading to the disappearance of many lesser-known schools. [more]
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