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815 (91-100)
April 20, 2020
Region:
91
The COVID-19 crisis raises the question of whether the increased shift towards working from home will ultimately reduce demand for office space. The longer the crisis continues, the more people will get used to long-distance co-operation – and the more efficient remote communication may become. However, employees and teams experience the corona crisis very differently. Much depends on how well a team worked together pre crisis. [more]
April 17, 2020
Region:
94
The German government has responded quickly and decisively to the economic fallout from the corona pandemic. Altogether, Germany’s anti-crisis measures – consisting of extra spending, guarantees and loan/participation programs – sum up to an astronomic value of around EUR 1.9 tr (well above 50% of GDP in 2019). This gives the government huge scope to fight the pandemic and economic crisis. In this note we try to quantify Germany’s fiscal costs from the corona crisis. [more]
April 16, 2020
Region:
95
Merkel’s cabinet in consultation with the PMs of the 16 federal states agreed to partially lift containment measures but curbing health risks clearly dominated economic risks of a longer shutdown. The decisions taken will be reviewed on a bi-weekly basis with the next meeting of political leaders on April 30. A European coordination of (national) exit strategies is important for Germany given its strong economic interlinkages with other member states. [more]
April 15, 2020
Region:
Analyst:
96
The coronavirus pandemic has struck the German mechanical engineering sector at an already difficult time. Since 2019 at the latest, mechanical engineering firms have been feeling the effects of a realignment in the industry, particularly as German automobile manufacturers shift towards electric mobility. On top of that, there was the possibility of unusual expenses due to the potential discontinuation of deliveries from China amid ongoing trade conflicts. Production may decline by 25% or more in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus. [more]
April 8, 2020
Region:
98
The banking industry in Europe is entering the corona recession with strong capital levels and ample liquidity, though still only moderate profitability. Revenues will come under substantial pressure this year, loan loss provisions will jump and net income will fall materially – many banks may well make losses. However, there is likewise massive support from the public sector, with governments propping up the real economy, central banks the financial markets and supervisors relaxing rules for banks. This should mitigate the hit. Nevertheless, the risks are profound and a prolonged shutdown could even trigger a renewed banking crisis. Enormous uncertainty regarding its depth and length notwithstanding, the current crisis may well turn out more severe than the macro-financial shock scenario underlying the latest European bank stress test. Its magnitude could possibly even exceed the financial crisis and the Great Recession. [more]
April 6, 2020
99
We’ve witnessed an immense human tragedy as the covid-19 virus has spread around the globe. Amidst the awful numbers of people who have succumbed to the disease, we’re also now witnessing an incredibly painful economic downturn. In a new podcast episode where we look at the data, ten million Americans have made jobless claims over the last two weeks. We’re now seeing equally staggering figures come out of many other countries as economies are simply shut down. [more]
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