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1097 (11-20)
December 20, 2022
For more than a decade, European banks have sought to catch up and narrow the gap to their US peers. For many years, they were not particularly successful, due to a number of reasons: economic growth in the US outpaced that in Europe, interest rates were consistently higher (and never negative) on the other side of the Atlantic, and restructuring and capital raising needs were greater in Europe which constrained the banks’ ability to expand their business. In the past few years, however, European banks’ performance has indeed improved and they have not just made substantial progress, but also seem well positioned to finally reduce the distance to their US competitors. [more]
December 19, 2022
We look at the expected recession in the winter half-year 2022/23 and the onset of recovery, how inflation will peak, while the labor market loses momentum and private consumption is hit by the loss of purchasing power. Construction and Capex spending are set to deteriorate. Fiscal policy continues to lean against the headwinds but should normalize somewhat. Loan growth, both with corporates and private households, may slow substantially. In a medium-term perspective, we discuss risks for the manufacturing industry and Germany’s geopolitical and competitive position. [more]
December 7, 2022
Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economics Research, Matt Luzzetti, Chief US Economist and Mark Wall, Chief European Economist, discuss the world outlook 2023 as we find ourselves at a defining moment for the global economy. Inflation is running at multi-decade highs, central banks are pursuing their most aggressive tightening cycle in a couple generations, and a recession is now increasingly expected in the US and Europe. As 2023 nears, there is a growing consensus that it is shaping up will be the third-worst year for global growth so far in the 21st century, behind only the pandemic year in 2020 and the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009. [more]
December 7, 2022
People often ask me how we choose our themes of the year ahead. It is not a hard science, but there is a framework we use. It starts by asking the following question: “What policies and developments in the economic, business, and political world are unsustainable, and what will it take for them to become sustainable?”. [more]
November 23, 2022
Semiconductors rank first as the most traded goods in global trade statistics in 2020, representing 15% of total global trade in goods. Before 2015, they were surpassed by computers and crude oil, based on the HS4 categorization by the World Customs Organization (WCO). Prices for semiconductors have fallen dramatically and steadily since 1995, both in real and nominal terms. Our new Trade Chain Complexity Index (TCC Index) allows for a comparison of the ratio of global trade with sales of various goods. For semiconductors, the TCC Index shows a peak of 7.2 for 2008. Since then, the complexity value has steadily decreased with a value of 5.9 for 2020. This trend might be the first sign of more cautious supply chain strategies in a challenging macro environment - and a downward trend for semiconductor globalization in a new era of digital sovereignty. [more]