Assessing the state of the US economy has become very tricky recently with various datapoints sending conflicting signals about the underlying strength. While 2.7 million new jobs were added in the first half of 2022 with the unemployment rate staying at 3.6%, consumer sentiment is plumbing historical lows and forward-looking growth indicators have weakened. Matthew Barnard, Head of Company Research, US speaks to Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, to shed light on what is going on. [mehr]

Moving into recession. A likely further decline in Russian gas supply after the maintenance of NS1 will necessitate additional savings. While we do not expect a full rationing, we believe the economic consequences will together with a US recession and other headwinds push Germany into a recession in H2 2022. Given that prospects for Russian gas deliveries have darkened since February, this energy shock will not hit Germany by surprise or unprepared. Hence, we expect a modest but rather drawn-out GDP decline, as the economy gradually adjusts. After a 1 ¼% expansion in 2022, German GDP will shrink by around 1% in 2023, largely because consumers will not be able to offset the real income loss by further dissaving. In a “tap remains turned off” scenario, we expect a rationing of gas leading to a GDP slump between 5% and 6% in 2023. [mehr]

In a new ‘Q&A with’ Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist shares his insights on whether the US Economy is already in a recession, and if it isn’t when one is expected and how the Fed is likely to respond to the conflicting signals from inflation and growth. [mehr]

Corinne Blanchard and Krisztina Katai have been honoured as ‘Rising Stars of Equity Research’ by the Business Insider publication. [mehr]

The quant team's 'Academic Insights' report discusses the most relevant, recently published academic papers on various topics related to quantitative investing as sourced by Deutsche Bank Research analysts. The latest edition, which features over 70 studies and podcasts, includes climate research, digital assets, intangibles, inflation, tail risk hedging and diversification. Watch this latest video with Caio Natividade to find out what stands out. [mehr]

From 2035, only climate-neutral passenger cars will be allowed to be registered in the EU. In principle, the course is being set in the direction of battery-electric mobility. However, the option of using e-fuels is not completely off the table. The market shares of electric cars in total new registrations currently vary widely within the EU. Southern and Eastern European countries are lagging behind. To increase the acceptance of e-mobility, the expansion of the charging infrastructure must be widely accelerated. This is a major challenge that also requires the support of the state. The trend towards electric mobility has already triggered a noticeable structural change in Germany as an automotive location. The net impact of this structural change on value creation and employment in Germany is likely to be negative. [mehr]

We usually only predict our top themes once a year. But the extraordinary changes in the first six months of 2022 mean the second six months are shaping up to be very different to everyone’s expectations. So in this publication we zero-in on the five most important themes that we believe will impact the rest of the year. [mehr]

Weltweit könnte eine Stagflation näher rücken. Die Inflationsdynamik baut sich weiter auf; entsprechende Straffungsmaßnahmen der Zentralbanken dämpfen das Wachstum in wichtigen Ländern. Russlands Invasion der Ukraine hat wichtige
Rohstoffmärkte und Lieferketten erschüttert. [mehr]

Ab 2035 sollen in der EU nur noch klimaneutrale Pkw zugelassen werden dürfen. Grundsätzlich werden alle Weichen Richtung batterieelektrische Mobilität gestellt. Allerdings ist die Option, sogenannte E-Fuels einzusetzen, nicht gänzlich vom Tisch. Die Marktanteile von Elektroautos an den gesamten Neuzulassungen fallen innerhalb der EU aktuell sehr unterschiedlich aus. Süd- und osteuropäische Länder sind hier die Nachzügler. Um Akzeptanz der E-Mobilität zu erhöhen, muss der Ausbau der Ladeinfrastruktur massiv beschleunigt werden. Dies ist eine große Herausforderung, bei der auch der Staat gefragt ist. Der Trend in Richtung Elektromobilität hat am Automobilstandort Deutschland bereits einen spürbaren Strukturwandel ausgelöst. Die Netto-Bilanz dieses Strukturwandels für die Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung in Deutschland wird negativ ausfallen. [mehr]

In the last months the strong headwinds for the construction industry are expected to ease as commodity prices fall and material and labor shortages begin to decline. [mehr]