German economy: Out in the cold. The real income and confidence shock resulting from the NS1 shutoff as well as the negative real wealth shock of some EUR 1.5 tn will likely send private consumption into a tailspin in 2023. Surging uncertainty and the energy shock causing a slump in competitiveness and profits will put a brake on corporate investment spending, in our opinion. The three fiscal packages and a probable additional one will likely not prevent a GDP slump. Together with a weaker global outlook, we expect the loss in final domestic demand to result in a GDP drop of 3% to 4% in 2023, after an increase of around 1% in 2022. [mehr]

We believe Consumer Staples companies are defined by the health and strength of their brands. As a result, we’ve just published a major piece of research which we call ‘the Brand Wagon’. In the report we analyse A&P investment over the last 25 years for the 26 largest Consumer Staples companies we cover in both Europe and the US.

This analysis allows us to assess how company investment in brands affects both financial and share price performance over the long term. We also look at how changing media consumption habits are impacting the way Consumer Staples companies build brands and whether the shift to digital versus traditional is making marketing investment cheaper or more effective. [mehr]

Do you have Private Equity in your portfolio and worry about illiquidity and valuation markdowns?

In this new video, Ganchi Zhang from our Quantitative Investment Solutions Research team summaries how our PE replication framework harnesses a better liquidity and risk profile. [mehr]

In our new series ‘Making Sense of Space’ we discuss various aspects of the Space ecosystem. The first episode kicks off with the rocket launch market. Edison Yu, lead on research coverage of Space & Aerial Mobility, speaks with Peter Beck, Founder and CEO of Rocket Lab, one of the leading launch companies in the world. [mehr]

In our new series ‘Making Sense of Space’ we discuss various aspects of the Space ecosystem. The first episode kicks off with the rocket launch market. Edison Yu, lead on research coverage of Space & Aerial Mobility, speaks with Peter Beck, Founder and CEO of Rocket Lab, one of the leading launch companies in the world. [mehr]

The two big drivers of corporate returns over the last decade have been upended in 2022. Specifically, corporates can no longer rely on higher debt or fatter profit margins as they have done post-financial crisis. Instead, to increase returns on equity, they might need to focus on generating more sales from existing assets - in other words, boost their asset turnover. [mehr]

On July 21, the ECB announced that it would raise the interest rate on the deposit facility from -0.5% to 0%, effective July 27. By the end of that very month, banks in Germany had reduced their stock of banknotes and coins by a record EUR 11 billion. There is much to suggest that they will continue to reduce their non-interest-bearing cash holdings, as the ECB interest rate will rise further to 0.75% in mid-September. [mehr]

Am 21. Juli verkündete die EZB die Anhebung des Zinssatzes für die Einlagenfazilität von -0,5% auf 0%, gültig ab dem 27. Juli. Noch bis Ende desselben Monats haben die Banken in Deutschland ihren Kassenbestand an Banknoten und Münzen um rekordverdächtige EUR 11 Mrd. abgebaut. Es spricht viel dafür, dass sie ihren unverzinsten Barbestand weiter zurückfahren werden, da der EZB-Zinssatz ab Mitte September sogar bei 0,75% liegen wird. [mehr]

Steigende Kosten und hohe Unsicherheit haben im zweiten Quartal zu einem rekordhohen Anstieg des Kreditvolumens mit Unternehmen und Selbstständigen geführt (EUR +35,4 Mrd.; +7,6% ggü. Vj.). Treiber waren kurzfristige Kredite an die Industrie. Alle Bankengruppen profitierten. Beispiellos auch das Plus der Kreditzinsen von 0,7-0,8 %-Punkten. Das Einlagenwachstum blieb klar zurück. Zum Ende der EZB-Käufe schnitten Anleiheemissionen (anders als Aktien-) nochmals gut ab. Die deutsche Konjunktur hat sich im zweiten Quartal spürbar verlangsamt (BIP +0,1% ggü. Vq.). Zwar kamen v.a. vom privaten und staatlichen Konsum positive Wachstumsbeiträge, diese wurden jedoch von Bau und Außenhandel großteils aufgezehrt. Ab H2 ist eine Rezession wahrscheinlich, da die Privathaushalte unter dem inflationsbedingt starken Kaufkraftverlust leiden und die Nettoexporte negativ bleiben dürften. Wir haben unsere BIP-Prognose für 2023 deutlich nach unten angepasst. [mehr]

‘Q&A with’ speaks to Tim Rokossa, Head of Company Research, Germany and Head of Autos Research. Tim and his team have just been ranked No.1 in the Institutional Investor’s 2022 All-Europe Research Team. Tim shares his outlook on what’s next for the automotive sector as it faces numerous challenges. [mehr]